Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The PGA Tour is resting after putting a lid on their 2023 season, but the DP World Tour is firing right back up this week with a pair of tournaments to kick off a new season.
There will be action in Australia and South Africa, providing a lot of playing opportunities right out of the gate. I’ll start with the Joburg and then share my thoughts on Australian PGA over in the FTN Bets Discord.
Course Fit
The first step of the process is always to evaluate the course.
This week’s host venue is Houghton Golf Club. It’s a par 71 that plays to 7,241 yards, which sounds pretty average in terms of course length. However, it’s played in Johannesburg, at altitude so that really shrinks the course and it becomes a “short course” for our grading purposes.
Jack Nicklaus came through in 2007 to renovate the course. He removed some trees and updated greens and bunkers. “It’s very difficult to challenge good golfers with length these days. You have to challenge them on the greens. The greens are supposed to be part of the challenge of a course.”
Here are the top performers when looking at consistency rates on short courses, over the last two years.
Dean Burmester
Daniel Brown
Gavin Green
Dan Bradbury
Nick Bachem
Matthew Southgate
Hennie Du Plessis
Thriston Lawrence
David Ravetto
Niklas Norgaard Moller
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Darius Van Driel
Ross Fisher
James Morrison
Bez and Burmy are the two “big names” on the list, but neither grades out as must-play when factoring in their 2023 baseline performance.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Nobody leaps off the page at first glance. It certainly feels like a week where backing a longer-shot winner could pay off.
Finish Position Market
The outright markets are most common when looking at golf bets but there is plenty of value to be found in the other markets.
Thirston Lawrence Top 20 Finish (-120)
The South African ranks eighth on the short-course consistency list above. He’s third when you split up that list and look at big-finish performance. He brings a good blend of consistency and upside to the table.
Recently, he arrives with seven straight cuts made with top-25 finishes in his two lead-up starts. He’s been driving it well and striking his irons well for a while and the putter finally wamed up last week at Jumeirah.
He’ll get a major relief in terms of field strength this week so I like his chances to putting together another big finish. Lawrence has four wins in the last four seasons with two of them coming in South Africa and the other two coming on shorter layouts. This week’s event sets up well for the 26-year-old.
Keep an eye on the PGA bet tracker for more plays. Hop in the Discord to get those bet alerts.
The fall schedule doesn’t provide the largest DFS contests, but the bets have been hitting recently so let’s keep it rolling all through the holiday season. Use promo code CULP when signing up for FTNBets and FTNDaily to get a 10% discount while staying sharp in the fall.
