TNF Plays: Best Props for Thursday Night Football, Week 11

Week 11 of the NFL season starts with a critical AFC North showdown between the Ravens and Bengals. Baltimore is coming off a disappointing home loss to Cleveland, a game they led 24-9 in the third quarter. The Bengals are also coming off a loss, a 30-27 home defeat to Houston, coming on the heels of a four-game winning streak. 

Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate.  You can find all our Week 11 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.

Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday night matchup

Week 11 Player Prop

Ja’Marr Chase Under 83.5 Receiving Yards

(-115, BetRivers)

I always believe in tethering the props to my projected game result. I think this is a smash spot for the Ravens, on a short week against a suspect Bengals defense. 

Entering this season, the Bengals had dominated this rivalry in recent years. Cincinnati had won four of the previous five matchups, including last year’s Wild Card Round at home. However, there is a chasm of a difference between the Bengals defensive efficiency last year and now. 

Cincinnati ranked seventh overall in defensive DVOA last season, with top-10 individual rankings against the pass and run. This year, the Bengals rank just 16th in defense, including an abysmal 29th in run defense DVOA. This is bad news against a Baltimore team that ranks first overall with 154.9 rushing yards per game. The Bengals have also struggled to contain Lamar Jackson on the ground as well. Jackson is averaging 62 rushing yards per game over his six-year career, but 71.3 rushing yards in nine career games against Cincinnati. 

The Bengals have also struggled to run the ball, ranking dead-last in rushing yards per game (74.8). They are also facing a Ravens run defense that ranks second overall in DVOA. Baltimore has also been specifically strong against the pass, ranking second best in the NFL. Cincinnati will enter the game shorthanded in the passing attack, with wideout Tee Higgins (hamstring) projected out of this game. 

Ja’Marr Chase torched the Ravens in his first two matchups, totaling 201 and 125 receiving yards with over 20 yards per receptions. However, in the last three games, Baltimore has held Chase to just an average of just 55.7 yards per game. 

I’m going under on Chase’s receiving yardage total in a road matchup against Cincinnati’s division rival. This is a great spot for the Ravens, coming off a loss, and I think Baltimore’s secondary prioritizes limiting Chase given Higgins’ likely absence.