Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to SEC bye week, aka the week before the teams take on their rival. There are just two weeks left in the college football regular season, so a lot of squads across the country are taking this Saturday off with a lesser opponent. There are still sandwich or letdown spots out there, but the majority of this weekend will be filled with lookaheads.
Let’s take a look at some contests you should be aware of on Saturday.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lookaheads (SEC Edition)
Chattanooga at Alabama
Noon ET
The Crimson Tide have the Iron Bowl Nov. 25, and this weekend they host Chattanooga. The interesting factor here is that we already know this team will be in the SEC title game against Georgia so how will they play these last two weeks. Last year Alabama beat Austin Peay 34-0 failing to cover as 42-point favorites the week before their matchup in the Iron Bowl. In 2019 they beat Western Carolina 66-3 as 58-point favorites before losing to the Tigers; in 2018 they failed to cover as 51-point favorites against the Citadel. Chattanooga is 7-3 in the FCS level and is coming off a bye week.
New Mexico State at Auburn
4 p.m. ET
Auburn -22
The Tigers are feeling good on a three-game win streak as they get set for the Iron Bowl in two weeks. This weekend they get a New Mexico State team that has clinched another bowl bid and is playing some good football. Last year, Auburn beat Western Kentucky 41-17 as a five-point favorite before the rivalry contest. Of course, that was with a different coach — Hugh Freeze is in his first season at Auburn. Last year the Aggies lost 45-14 to Missouri in close to this same situation. The Tigers are way better than New Mexico State, but pardon them if it’s not a runaway victory.
Lookaheads (Non-SEC Edition)
Coastal Carolina at Army
Noon ET
Coastal Carolina -5.5
The Chanticleers have won five straight and could put themselves in a nice position to win the Sun Belt eastern division if the NCAA doesn’t approve JMU’s waiver for bowl eligibility. Coastal Carolina has those Dukes in their building Nov. 25, but before then, they travel to Army to take on a team they beat 38-28 last year. Army needs two wins to make it to 6-6, so this is an important game for them. You always want to be focused on weeks to prepare for the triple option, and who knows if Coastal will be.
Minnesota at Ohio State
4 p.m. ET
Ohio State -27.5
The Buckeyes have been spectacular this season, but let’s be honest, this is a three-game schedule, with Game 3e coming next weekend against Michigan. Ohio State has 5-5 Minnesota this week coming off a 49-30 loss to Purdue. OSU is 1-3 ATS the last five seasons in the game before the Michigan matchup. Last year they failed to cover as 27-point favorites in a 43-30 win at Maryland. The only cover in that span happened in 2021 as 19-point favorites in a 56-7 win over Michigan State. Beware the back door in this one.
South Florida at UTSA
9 p.m. ET Friday
UTSA -16
There are three teams atop the AAC standings, and two of them play next week as UTSA travels to Tulane. The Roadrunners have won six straight and are playing great football right now. USF is one win away from bowl eligibility, so they won’t roll over here. If UTSA isn’t 100% focused, this could be a bit of a closer game.
Letdowns
UL-Monroe at Ole Miss
Noon ET
Ole Miss -36.5
Lane Kiffin’s bunch came up real short in a 52-17 loss to Georgia last weekend. The loss clinched the SEC western division for Alabama meaning this team is essentially playing for their bowl spot. They also will have the short week to prepare for the Egg Bowl Thanksgiving week. The last couple of years the Rebels had SEC opponents before the Egg Bowl so it’s hard to determine how they’ll play here. The Warhawks are really bad and haven’t won since starting the season 2-0. They lost 47-3 to Texas A&M earlier in the season and 63-7 at Alabama last year. Ole Miss may be hungover early, but eventually they’ll smash ULM.
Rutgers at Penn State
Noon ET
Penn State -20.5
The Nittany Lions are home Saturday as they host Rutgers after playing horribly against Michigan last week. It was so bad that the team fired their offensive coordinator after the loss so who knows how they’ll look this weekend for another noon kickoff against a decent defense in Rutgers. If there wer ever a spot for a massive letdown, it would be here. Problem is that the Scarlet Knights offense is absolutely brutal. James Franklin wins these games though and usually wins them by margin.
Sandwiches
Oregon at Arizona State
4 p.m. ET
Oregon -22.5
Oregon is not going to lose this weekend, but it may not be 100% focused. They are coming off the solid win over USC and have their rivalry game with Oregon State on Black Friday. The Ducks are trying to fuel the Bo Nix Heisman campaign, but Arizona State has been playing some decent football as of late. The Sun Devils have won two of their last three so just be aware the back door could be open in this one.
Kentucky at South Carolina
7:30 p.m. ET
Kentucky -1.5
Kentucky is in a nasty sandwich right now as the Wildcats come off another loss to Alabama 49-21 on Senior Day. UK has their rivalry game at Louisville next week, and in between they head to South Carolina to take on the Gamecocks. South Carolina needs two wins down the stretch to attain bowl eligibility so focus shouldn’t be an issue for them, but where is UK going to be for this one. Two years ago, they beat New Mexico State 56-16 as a 35-point favorite the week before playing at Louisville. South Carolina isn’t that bad, but they aren’t that good either.
Smash Spots
Louisville at Miami
Noon ET
Louisville -1.5
Welcome back Miami, after a tough 27-20 loss to Florida State in which their quarterback left with a broken arm and their team with broken spirits. The Canes are sitting at 6-4 and could lose their last two games of the season to finish 6-6 overall. Louisville has a spot in the ACC title game to play for and their offense has been spectacular the past few weeks. I expect them to get the win here on the road in front of a less-than-stellar crowd at noon.
New Mexico at Fresno State
10:30 p.m. ET
Fresno State -24
The Bulldogs are coming off a tough 42-18 loss to San Jose State and now have New Mexico at home. They are still in the mix for a Mountain West title berth so despite the loss, we should get a focused effort here. Fresno has scored over 30 points in every home game except when they put up 27 vs. Nevada. The Lobos have given up 40 or more four times this season and are ready for the offseason. The home team should roll here.
Multiple Situations
Michigan at Maryland
Noon ET
Michigan -19
The Wolverines are coming off a 24-15 win over Penn State on the road and have a monster tilt with Ohio State at home next week. Sitting in between is a veteran of this article in Maryland who has had several opportunities for big wins, and they’ve failed miserably in every situation. Michigan has embraced the villain role and is a team that is very together right now so maybe they are extremely focused for this one. We’ll also see if Jim Harbaugh is on the sidelines and if he isn’t then I’m actually less worried about a lack of focus. This is a sandwich and lookahead spot at the same time.
