College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
The No.1-ranked Georgia Bulldogs (7-0, 4-0) and the Florida Gators (5-2, 3-1) will meet again in the “Cocktail Party” Saturday afternoon at Everbank Stadium in Jacksonville (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
The Bulldogs have won five out of the last six Cocktail Party games over the Gators, including last season’s 42-20 win. Florida’s defense had no answers for standout tight end Brock Bowers and running back Daijun Edwards. Bowers recorded five receptions for 154 yards and a TD, while Edwards ran for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
Bowers will not play in this year’s edition of the Cocktail Party as he suffered a high ankle sprain in Georgia’s 37-20 win over Vanderbilt Oct. 14. However, even though the Bulldogs will not have their most dangerous player on offense, the Gators will have to account for Edwards, who has 460 yards and six touchdowns this season.
As for the Gators, they are riding a two-game winning streak after coming back from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to defeat South Carolina 41-39 Oct. 14. Florida QB Graham Mertz put on a show as he threw for 423 yards and three touchdowns. One of Mertz’s three TD passes went to wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, who finished with 10 receptions for 166 yards.
To no one’s surprise, the Gators are 14.5-point road underdogs heading into Saturday’s rivalry game, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Nonetheless, can Florida pull off another top-25 upset this season? Or will the Bulldogs continue their success over the Gators?
Below, we’ll break down this historic SEC rivalry, which could shake the SEC East standings and College Football Playoff rankings.
Odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Georgia vs. Florida
Spread: Georgia -14.5 (-108); Florida +14.5 (-112)
Moneyline: Georgia -625; Florida +455
Total: Over 49.5 (-108); Under 49.5 (-112)
The Bulldogs are entering new territory coming off the bye week, as they will not have Bowers potentially for the rest of the season. The star tight end was one of the best offensive players in the country and played a significant role in the Bulldogs’ passing game. The 6-foot-4 tight end leads the Bulldogs in receptions (41), yards (567) and touchdowns (4).
Without Bowers, the next best receiving option for QB Carson Beck is junior wideout Dominic Lovett. Lovett led the team in receiving against Vanderbilt, as he had nine receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown. If the Bulldogs want to win Saturday afternoon and win the SEC again, they will need Lovett, Ladd McConkey and Marcus Rosemy-Jackson to help carry this offense.
Granted, that might be a tall task for the Bulldogs’ receivers as the season goes along. But when it comes to Saturday’s game, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see head coach Kirby Smart lean on Daijun Edwards against this Florida run defense.
This season, the Gators allow 124.9 rushing yards per game, which is good for seventh in the SEC. Florida gave up 152 yards on the ground against South Carolina and 64 yards to Vandy in their last two wins. However, we just saw this defense get gashed for 280 yards and three TDs by Kentucky running back Ray Davis.
Edwards can do similar damage to this Gators’ defense as he has two games this season with 100-plus rushing yards.
If that happens, it should open up the passing game for Beck, who is completing 71.4% of his passes for 2,147 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions. It also doesn’t help that Florida only has 11 sacks and two interceptions this season (worst in the SEC).
On the subject of the Gators, the question they must answer Saturday will be whether their offense can sustain drives against this vaunted Bulldogs’ defense. Georgia has the best third-down defense in the country this season, holding opponents to 23.6%.
When you look at Florida’s offense, they are converting 28.95% of their third downs (123rd in the nation). Mertz, the Wisconsin transfer, has played spectacularly in his first season at Florida, and he could carry it into Saturday’s game against Georgia.
However, do you trust the running back duo of Montrell Johnson Jr. and Etienne to have breakout performances vs. this Georgia front seven, which only allows 3.5 yards per carry?
That’s another question the Gators must answer early Saturday. The Gators are 3-4 against the spread, while the Bulldogs are 1-5-1. Florida is 2-0 ATS as double-digit underdogs in the Billy Napier era and has a veteran quarterback in Mertz who won’t be intimidated by the moment.
If Bowers were playing Saturday, I could confidently lay the points with the Bulldogs on the spread. But I’ll take the points with the Gators in this one. They might not win Saturday, but they will keep it competitive to scare the No. 1 team in the nation.
Best Bet: Florida +14.5 (-112)
