Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
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Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres
Rockies +230 @ Padres -300 – Total 8.5 (BetMGM)
The Padres waited until the final two weeks of the season to play their best ball. They’ve won six in a row, as they’re currently 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League with only 10 games to go. Bob Melvin’s club looks to finish off a sweep of the lowly Rockies today with one of their better arms on the bump.
One of the few bright spots this season has been Seth Lugo, who is making his 25th start of the season Wednesday afternoon. This is the 33-year-old’s first season as a starter since 2017, when he made 18 starts. Lugo has gone over the six-inning mark in 15 of his 24 outings in 2023, including five of his last six. The righty has thrown 131.2 innings this season, as his ERA, FIP and SIERA all sit below four. Lugo has displayed great control in 2023, as his walk rate ranks in the 88th percentile. He gets a relatively easy matchup this afternoon at Petco Park, as he’s pitched seven innings in both of his starts against the Rockies this season.
At the dish, only the Angels have been worse than the Rockies since August against right-handed pitching, posting a 79 wRC+. Their 27.5% K% over that period is the highest in the Show and their 7.3% BB% is the sixth lowest. As a team, Colorado doesn’t do a great job of making pitchers work and throw a ton of pitches, as they see the 11th-fewest pitches per plate appearance in baseball.
The Pads have used most of their bullpen arms over the last two days, so they could certainly use some depth from Lugo even with a day off tomorrow. When betting pitcher outs, it’s important to be aware of the key numbers: 15.5 and 17.5 are the two most important lines. As most pitchers are usually projected to go between five and six innings. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Seth Lugo Over 17.5 Outs (-115, BetMGM)
Bonus Bet: Seth Lugo Over 5.5 K’s (-145)
