College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
The Wyndham Championship is the final event of the PGA Tour’s regular season. There is still plenty of golf on the horizon, but this is the last chance for golfers to earn their spot in the playoffs.
Narratives always start flying at this event, but we should stick to the basics, which is baseline performance and course fit.
Course Fit
The first stop each week is Alex’s course fit article:
This week he points out the importance of driving accuracy at Sedgefield Country Club.
I found the same thing in my analysis of past contenders at the course. Looking at the 24 lead-in rounds before winning the Wyndham, the last three winners have averaged +27 fairways gained.
For comparison’s sake, that would rank 14th in the field when looking at this week’s field. It’s extremely rare to find signal in driving accuracy so when it does pop like this, we need to take advantage.
Who are the names near the top of the board that meet or exceed that number? Aaron Rai, Si Woo Kim, and Russell Henley. If you expand your search you find golfers like Denny McCarthy, Alex Smalley, Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Hadwin also grade out fairly strong in driving accuracy in the lead-up to this week’s event. I’ve already fired up outright bets on two of these names, check the bet tracker for those plays.
Outright Odds
Here’s what the top of the board looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook:
They are just begging people to throw money at Justin Thomas with that number. He is sitting outside of the FedEx Cup Playoffs bubble, but his recent form leaves a lot to be desired. Thomas has the winning pedigree and motivation on his side but has finished T-60 or worse in seven of his last eight starts. Woof.
Odds Shopping
Using our prop shop tool is vital when it comes to saving time and money betting golf. Let me point out one example of the difference it can make.
Zach Johnson Top 40 Finish
Best available: +280 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Worst available: +230
ZJ may be distracted by all of his Ryder Cup duties, but that hasn’t stopped him from finding a bit of game recently. Johnson arrives with top-35s in two of his last four starts.
More importantly, we now head to Sedgefield Country Club, a venue that puts an emphasis on precision, always a strength for Johnson.
Plugging in all of the numbers, I have him pegged around +230 fair value for a top-40 finish which is right where you may find him on some books if you don’t use the FTN Prop Shop tool.
With top-40 finishes in four of his six tries at the Wyndham, I will take the added value from FanDuel Sportsbook’s price.
Check out the PGA bet tracker for more plays from Alex and myself.
The regular season may be winding down but it’s still a great time to check out the PGA product at FTNBets and FTNDaily. Use promo code CULP for a nice discount. The FedEx Cup Fall Series is new this year and should present a nice edge for us as many turn their attention onto NFL.
