Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite MLB bets today. Today, Chris Meaney provides his picks for Monday, July 31st. Check out today’s episode of Mean Streets for more MLB props and MLB picks.
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The Best MLB Props Bets
Andrew Abbott OVER 5.5 K
(-134, FanDuel)
This number has moved since it was placed in our Bet Tracker and pushed as our FREE bet of the day, but I still like it all the way up to -140, which I see at three other books in our FREE Prop Shop.
Abbott has been one of my favorite starting pitchers to target when it comes to strikeout MLB props. The rookie pitcher has been absolutely brilliant through his first 10 starts in the majors. Abbott carries a 1.90 ERA over 61.2 innings and he’s racked up 66 strikeouts over that time (9.63 K/9). This streak he’s on is likely unsustainable, but he’s allowed one or zero runs in seven of his starts. He’s also had at least six strikeouts in seven of those 10 outings, including his last two matchups where he fanned 15 over 14 scoreless innings against Milwaukee and San Francisco.
Abbott’s 96.2% strand rate is 100% not sustainable and I have concerns about his 56.7% fly ball rate, which is part of why he has a 4.29 xFIP. However, I don’t mind this matchup. Chicago checks in with a 23.4% K-Rate, which is the 13th highest mark in the game. That number is a touch higher at 24% vs LHP (eighth-highest). Chicago also ranks in the middle of the pack in OPS and wOBA against southpaws.
Bonus
- Houston Astros OVER 4.5 Runs (-136, UniBet)
- Corbin Burnes, Andrew Abbott & Charlie Morton 5+ K (+112, Bet365)
