Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
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Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies
Orioles -104 @ Phillies -112 – Total 9.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
After splitting the first two, the O’s and Phils finish up a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday evening. I have a bet on a side in this one, but the official play will be another strikeout prop.
Kyle Bradish is breaking out in his sophomore season with the Baltimore Orioles, improving both his swinging-strike and strikeout percentage through 97.1 innings in 2023. You won’t find Bradish at the top of the leaderboards, but his strikeout percentage has taken a leap, thanks to an increase in slider usage. The slider is the 26-year-old’s best punchout pitch, as it carries a 36.6% K% and a 17.7% swinging-strike percentage. You can see his strikeouts take off as he began featuring his slider more (image below via Fangraphs). Bradish has gone over this number in four of his last six starts — missing by the hook in both losses, versus more disciplined clubs than the Phillies.
Philadelphia enters play Wednesday afternoon just outside the top 10 in punchouts against right-handed pitching, ranking 11th at 23.5% – that number has increased a tad over the last 30 days. Philly ranks seventh in strikeouts per game overall at 9.16. Philadelphia’s discipline metrics have taken a dive over the last 14 days. They’re striking out 25% of the time with a 33.3% chase percentage. Their 13% swinging-strike percentage over that period is one of the highest in baseball. Overall, the Phillies have the seventh-worst contact percentage in the show. Their projected lineup features six batters with a strikeout percentage over 23.4% against right-handed pitching this season. Those hitters fared even worse against sliders this season — as six of their batters have a punchout percentage over 29.7% against that pitch type (Image below via RotoGrinders).
I’m projecting Bradish to pitch about six innings Wednesday evening and get the six K’s we need to cash. As always, use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.
Bet
Kyle Bradish Over 5.5 K’s (+108, FanDuel Sportsbook)
