Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Tuesday 7/25)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins 

Mariners +100 @ Twins -120 – Total 7.5 (Caesars Sportsbook)

We’re headed to Target Field, as I’ve found an edge in the strikeout market, with the Twins hosting the Mariners. I’ve targeted these two high-strikeout clubs for most of the 2023 season and there’s no reason to stop now. I’m going to keep this brief since this number is on the move this morning. 

George Kirby’s strikeout numbers have dropped in his sophomore season – he posted a 24.5% last season, and that number has dipped to 21.7% K%. The righty’s swinging-strike percentage is actually a touch higher than it was in 2022 but we’ve seen his zone contact increase a couple of percentage points. The good news is we’ve seen both of those numbers improve for Kirby over his last few starts. Since July 1, Kirby’s Z-Contact% sits at 82% – almost 6% lower than his season mark. While his swinging-strike percentage is 2.6% higher than his season mark at 12.4% and his K% is close to where it was last year at 24%. The 25-year-old won’t waste pitches on free passes, as his walk rate ranks in the 100th percentile. Kirby’s savant page has more blue than we’d like, but he does rank in the 84th percentile in chase rate. Just like in 2022, Kirby’s best punchout pitch has been his fastball, posting a 28.4% K% with his 4-seamer and that certainly bodes well for Tuesday evening’s matchup with the Twinkies. 

Kirby’s numbers might not blow you away, but this matchup doesn’t get much easier. Minnesota has the fourth-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season at 26%. Nobody has punched out at a higher rate over the last 30 days, as Minnesota has a 27.9%K% across their last 687 plate appearances against righties. The Twins lead baseball in strikeouts per game at 10.26 – as they’re the only team averaging double-digits. I mentioned Kirby’s fastball being his best weapon as far as K’s go this season, the Twins lead MLB with a 27.9% K% against fastballs, while the league average sits at 21.9%. 

I’m projecting Kirby to pitch about six innings Tuesday evening in Minnesota. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this over; as Frank projects the starter for 6.7 punchouts. I mentioned this prop has been on the move, I personally bet -140 and wouldn’t bet it at worse than -155. We’ll have an ally behind the dish Tuesday, as Bill Miller is one of the most pitcher-friendly umps in the majors. As always, use the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

George Kirby Over 5.5 K’s (-149, Caesars)