Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 7/7)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox 

Athletics +196 @ Red Sox -240 – Total 10.5 (Caesars)

A couple of division cellar dwellers face off Friday evening, as the A’s and Sox begin a three-game set at Fenway in their final series before the All-Star break. Their divisional positioning is where the similarities end, as the Red Sox have 20 more wins than the Athletics. We won’t have action in the strikeout market in this one, but I did find an edge in the team totals. 

Athletics rookie Luis Medina makes his ninth career start in the show Friday evening. The righty hasn’t found much success above AA – he posted a 7.43 ERA in his only three starts at the AAA level and has a 6.37 ERA through his first 53.2 MLB innings. His ERA is even higher as a starter this season at 6.92 (4.91 ERA out of the bullpen). Medina’s advanced stats don’t show much positive regression, with a 5.07 SIERA and a 5.92 FIP. The 24-year-old’s percentile rankings (via BaseballSavant) aren’t much better – as it’s covered in blue. The only thing he has going for him is his fastball velocity. Medina doesn’t strike out hitters out, he’s walking too many and has trouble avoiding hard contact. Not a recipe for success at any level. 

As a team, nobody allows more runs per game than the A’s at 6.25 — that number is even higher on the road, at 6.53. When Medina’s day is done, he’ll be followed by a putrid Oakland bullpen. Their 4.72 ERA is only worse than the Rockies (who play half their games on the moon), while both their FIP and SIERA sit just outside the bottom five. 

If you haven’t noticed Fenway Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums this season – behind only Coors Field in terms of a positive run environment. Via Baseball Savant’s Park Factors we’re seeing runs score at a 17% clip above league average at Fenway.

That’s part of the reason why it comes to no surprise that the Sox have scored the fourth-most runs per game at home this season at 5.51 – more than a full run higher than their road average of 4.23. At home against right-handed pitching Boston’s 115 wRC+ is the sixth-best in the show. Overall, the Sox offense sits in the middle of the pack in a number of offensive categories as they’ve struggled some after a scorching hot start. However, this is a great spot for them to get right against a pathetic A’s pitching staff. 

I’m projecting Medina to struggle his way through four-plus innings Friday while allowing three or four runs. Boston shouldn’t have too much trouble getting the rest of their scoring done against the A’s horrendous relief arms. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bets

Red Sox TT Over 5.5 (-125, Caesars)