NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The AAC will have a drastically different look this year, with UCF, Cincinnati and Houston gone. That’s a lot of football talent departing, which is concerning on the field. Of course, none of these moves in realignment is based on the field, but mostly money and eyeballs. The conference will attempt to replace them with UTSA, FAU, North Texas, UAB, Rice and Charlotte. There’s a lot of optimism surrounding the Roadrunners, while Florida Atlantic and North Texas could have some sleeper potential. Tulane will be in the mix with fellow holdovers SMU and Memphis as potential title game candidates.
Let’s take a look at their season outlooks and where I have a betting lean.
Charlotte
Win total: Over 2.5 (-175, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 3.5 (-150, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: SC State, @ Maryland, Georgia State, @ Florida
Schedule Notes
The 49ers have a very tough early pair of road trips as they take on a team from the Big 10 and the SEC. Their first year in the AAC will feature home games against Memphis and Navy to go along with road trips to SMU, East Carolina and South Florida.
Quarterback
Bethune Cookman transfer Jalon Jones
Roster Notes
It’s a brand-new coaching staff in Charlotte with former Michigan associate head coach Biff Poggi leading the way. His coordinator hires were Mike Miller, who was the co-OC at Maryland, and Ryan Osborn, who was a defensive assistant with the Ravens. There are only nine starters back total, so there could be a lot of long games for this team that couldn’t stop anyone on defense. They did pick up a few interesting transfers in Demon Clowney from Ole Miss and Eyabi Okie from Michigan, but they’ll need a lot more help. The offense is going to struggle although Shadrick Byrd is a pretty solid running back.
Prediction
I came up with 2-3 wins. Small lean to the under 3.5 on BetMGM.
East Carolina
Over 5.5 (+125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 6.5 (-215, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: @ Michigan, Marshall, @ App State, Gardner-Webb
Schedule Notes
The Pirates don’t ease into the season with three challenges to begin the campaign. They alternate road and home games the first half of the season and have two of their last three on the road.
Quarterback
Mason Garcia
Roster Notes
Mike Houston could have a challenging season on offense with only three starters back and a wide receiving corps that needs to be rebuilt. We’ll see what Georgia transfer Jaylen Johnson and Georgia Tech transfer Ryan King can do to help. RB Keaton Mitchell is gone, and he really opened things up for the Pirates. Garcia has some experience in this offense, but who will step up around him. The defense has a little more talent back, especially up front with an intact defensive line. That’s important with a lack of returnees at linebacker and cornerback as CB Malik Fleming went to Houston.
Prediction
Slight lean to the over here especially at a plus price on DraftKings.
Florida Atlantic
Over 7.5 (+110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: Monmouth, Ohio, @ Clemson, @ Illinois
Schedule Notes
The Owls should be 2-0 before two Power 5 road trips. If the Illini aren’t focused, it will be a very tight game in Week 4. UTSA, East Carolina and Tulane all have to come to Boca Raton while all of their conference road trips aren’t very difficult.
QB Battle
Nebraska transfer Casey Thompson vs. CMU transfer Daniel Richardson
Roster Notes
It’s a brand-new coaching staff as Tom Herman takes over. I’ll be interested to see how this offense looks with either Thompson or Richardson under center as each has some solid attributes. There’s plenty returning in RB Larry McCammon III and four of the top five WRs including LaJohntay Wester. The defense will be coordinated by Roc Bellantoni who was previously at Auburn. He’s going to have 17 of the top 20 tacklers returning which should help in his 3-4 style of defense. The problem is that the unit gave up a ton of yards and only had 18 sacks. This team could be a deep sleeper when it comes to making the AAC title game.
Prediction
Tough schedule, and I come up with about 7-8 wins so no play here. I wish this was just a bit lower because I’d jump on over 6.5.
Memphis
Over 7.5 (-150, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 8.5 (-135, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: Bethune-Cookman, @ Arkansas State, Missouri (St. Louis), Boise State
Schedule Notes
The Tigers have four of their first six at home with an intriguing end of September taking on Missouri in St. Louis before hosting Boise State. They close with four of their final six on the road including tough trips to UAB and North Texas.
Quarterback
Seth Henigan
Roster Notes
The transfer portal was active around this school with some key players departing for the SEC in TE Caden Prieskorn, who went to Ole Miss, and DT Cam’Ron Jackson, who went to Florida. Henigan returns and has leading rusher Jeyvon Ducker alongside him. That’s important considering the WR room saw five guys depart. Ryan Silverfield isn’t necessarily the greatest coach so that’s a concern with less talent at the school. The defense has a handful of starters back on all levels as the secondary tries to match last year’s success. They need to improve on last year’s 21 sacks.
Prediction
The schedule lines up for 9 wins or so, but I’m not a fan of Silverfield as coach, so my lean is under 8.5 on BetMGM. I guess I also don’t mind the over 7.5 on DraftKings, although -150 is my juice threshold.
Navy
Over 5.5 (-172, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 6.5 (-125, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: Notre Dame (Ireland), Wagner, Air Force, Army (Foxboro)
Schedule Notes
The new coaching staff certainly starts the season with a bang flying thousands of miles to potentially get blasted by Notre Dame. They get their usual Commander in Chief trophy games against Air Force and Army as well. The Middies host UAB and East Carolina in conference and have road trips to Memphis and SMU.
QB Battle
Tai Lavatai vs. Xavier Arline vs. Teddy Gleaton vs. Blake Horvath
Roster Notes
New head coach Brian Newberry was moved up from being the team’s defensive coordinator. He brought in Grant Chesnut, who was the OC at Kennesaw State. The one intriguing storyline here is that there are rumbles of passing wrinkles being installed so we’ll see how that goes considering the WR’s they previously recruited were more suited for the option. The defense has nine starters back from a unit that was third against the run. The secondary should be pretty strong so that will make them really tough to move on. First-quarter unders involving the academies could be a play involving this squad.
Prediction
I think six is a solid number, but I’m not paying that kind of juice for it.
North Texas
Over 6 (-125, Caesars)
Under 6.5 (-115, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: California, @ FIU, @ Louisiana Tech, Abilene Christian
Schedule Notes
The Mean Green are playing some of their former opponents from Conference USA early on with both of them on the road. They have an interesting four game AAC stretch playing at Tulane followed by home tilts with Memphis and UTSA before traveling to SMU.
Quarterback
ULM transfer Chandler Rogers
Roster Notes
Eric Morris comes over from Washington State where he had a great season as offensive coordinator due to some stellar quarterback play. He’s only 37 years old and has some question marks, but we’ll see what he does for an offense that has five of its top seven receivers back and the top four running backs as well. Rogers is intriguing and he should have some time to throw, considering this team was fifth in sacks allowed overall. The defense could be an issue as they implement Matt Caponi’s 3-3-5 style. There are eight starters returning including key players on every level of the unit. The talent is there if the coaching succeeds.
Prediction
Love that 6 at Caesars because it gives me an opportunity for a push. I like 6-7 wins here so that’s a lean for me.
Rice
Over 4.5 (-110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 4.5 (+105, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ Texas, Houston, Texas Southern, UConn
Schedule Notes
It’s no easy start to the 2023 campaign against several in-state opponents. They figure to learn a lot about their team after an 0-2 start that leads to three of four at home. The Owls host Tulane and SMU beginning in late October and then take on UTSA on the road the next week.
Quarterback
West Virginia transfer JT Daniels
Roster Notes
Daniels is seemingly on his 15th team in his college career, so we’ll see how it goes. The Owls recently took a blow on offense when Bradley Rozner entered the transfer portal. They still have Luke McCaffrey back at WR and Jack Bradley at TE. There are also questions with the backfield and an offensive line that was mediocre last year. The Owls have their three leading tacklers back as part of seven starters overall on defense. Really, it’s the front line that could be an issue with the linebackers and secondary being pretty solid.
Prediction
No play here as I come up with 4-5 wins.
SMU
Over 7.5 (-225, BetMGM)
Under 8.5 (-130, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: Louisiana Tech, @ Oklahoma, Prairie View, @ TCU
Schedule Notes
There are a lot of expectations for the Mustangs this season, so we’ll see how they measure up on the road with Oklahoma and TCU. Four of their first seven overall are on the road with a trip to East Carolina pretty early in the conference slate. If they can get past all of that, they have three of their final five at home. Missing UTSA and Tulane is huge.
Quarterback
Preston Stone
Roster Notes
Rhett Lashlee went the transfer route with 24 of them coming in, including 18 from Power 5 schools. Of course, it all begins with Stone, who was a four-star recruit, and what he can do with this offense. The ground game is intact while the WR room is pretty close to that outside of losing Rashee Rice. The defense loses its top four tacklers, but also has some key transfers in Charles Woods from West Virginia and Jordan Miller from Miami.
Prediction
I’m in the 7- to 8-win area, so there’s no play here for me.
Temple
Over 5 (-150, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 6 (-170, Caesars)
Non-Conference Games: Akron, @ Rutgers, Norfolk State, Miami
Schedule Notes
Four of the first six are at home including a really tough test against Miami Sept. 23. In conference they get a lot of their tough opponents at home with UTSA and SMU coming to the Linc in October and Memphis closing everything out Nov. 25. The early game against Tulsa Sept. 28 could determine bowl eligibility record-wise as it’s a turning point game.
Quarterback
E.J. Warner
Roster Notes
The Owls are blessed with one of the most underrated signal callers in America, as Kurt Warner’s son was fantastic last year. He needs a little bit more from a ground game that was very underwhelming last season. The WR group is intriguing with Amad Anderson Jr. back as well as Colorado State transfer Dante Wright. The defense was a question mark last year and the hire of Everett Withers to be the coordinator could be an issue considering his past stops. Still, the linebacking corps could be the best in the conference led by Layton Jordan. The secondary isn’t bad, but they need to force more turnovers.
Prediction
Once again, the even number is a big help as I project around five wins here. Probably not a play for me, but I lean to the over at five only because of push potential.
Tulane
Over 9 (-140, Caesars)
Under 9.5 (-115, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: South Alabama, Ole Miss, @ Southern Miss, Nicholls
Schedule Notes
The Green Wave get five of their first seven at home including the rare SEC squad as Ole Miss is in New Orleans in week two. They do get UTSA at home to close out the regular season along with road trips to Memphis and East Carolina which could be tough.
Quarterback
Michael Pratt
Roster Notes
Pratt is a great place to start on offense, but he may be asked to do more with Tyjae Spears gone as well as Deuce Watts. The offensive line has four starters back so once they figure out the RB position, they should be in good shape. The defense loses their top five tacklers from last year and might struggle in the secondary a little. Three coordinators are gone, but I really like what Shiel Woods did with the defense at Troy so that should be good for that side of the ball. How will this team handle being the hunted instead of the hunter?
Prediction
Lean to the under especially at 9.5. Slightly concerned about following up on last year.
Tulsa
Over 4.5 (+110, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Under 4.5 (-105, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: UAPB, @ Washington, Oklahoma, @ NIU
Schedule Notes
Once again, the season gets off to a ridiculously tough start with two Power 5 opponents and a sneaky MAC game against one of the conference’s best. The Golden Hurricane have a new coaching staff so things could get really rough. They actually alternate home and road contests all season long so that won’t allow them to build any momentum.
Quarterback
Braylon Braxton
Roster Notes
Kevin Wilson comes over from Ohio State, and he should be able to improve the offense despite four returning starters. Braxton has some intriguing intangibles, and he has to be the man with Davis Brin going to Georgia Southern. Oklahoma State’s Braylin Presley will become the number one weapon on offense as there’s plenty of inexperience around him. The defense will be led by Chris Polizzi, who held the same coordinator job at UT-Martin. The team’s secondary has the most experience and will be the strength of the unit, but how long will they have to cover if the front seven can’t get pressure on the QB.
Prediction
No play here as I came up with 4-5 wins for the Golden Hurricane, whose offense should be fun to watch later on in the season.
UAB
Over 4.5 (-130, Caesars)
Under 5.5 (-188, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Non-Conference Games: North Carolina A&T, @ Georgia Southern, Louisiana, @ Georgia
Schedule Notes
The Blazers get road trips to Georgia and Tulane in the first month of the season. Two weeks later another contender gets to host the Blazers as they take on UTSA as well. The payoff comes later as they have home games in three of the last five weeks of the season as well as a bye in late October.
QB Battle
Jacob Zeno vs. Louisiana Tech transfer Landry Lyddy
Roster Notes
I don’t trust Trent Dilfer in the least and think this hire will make a negative difference on the team. Bill Clark was one of the best coaches in America and now they are replacing him with a high school coach. Even worse is that UAB has just eight returnees on both sides of the ball combined. Dilfer has to find a quarterback and a way to get things going behind a really inexperienced offensive line. The bright spot is Jermaine Brown at running back who was awesome last year behind DeWayne McBride. The team’s defensive coordinator worked with Dilfer at Lipscomb Academy so he’s new to college football. There’s some talent up front and in the secondary, but how will the linebacking play be.
Prediction
I wanted to play the under, but the juice is too much on 5.5 and I’ve got about 5 wins, so I wouldn’t take the 4.5 under.
USF
Over 4 (-120, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 4.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ WKU, Florida A&M, Alabama, @ UConn
Schedule Notes
The Bulls’ new coaching staff gets a few challenges early, and if they aren’t careful, they could start out 1-5 before a game at home against Florida Atlantic. They have to play four games on the road over a six-week span (with a bye in there) from Sept. 30th to Nov. 4.
Quarterback
Gerry Bohanon
Roster Notes
There’s a new coaching staff in Tampa, and a lot of them have experience on the offensive side of the ball where there are just two starters returning. One of those is the signal caller Bohanon, who missed spring ball with a shoulder injury. There’s a solid pair of RB’s here in Kelley Joiner Jr., and Florida transfer Nay’Quan Wright, but only one OL returns. The defense has nine starters back and Todd Orlando has plenty of experience. It was a group that struggled a ton last year, but the hope is that a good coach and more experience will help them improve.
Prediction
Four is a pretty solid number so maybe look at the number on DraftKings for push potential.
UTSA
Over 7.5 (-130, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Under 7.5 (+135, BetMGM)
Non-Conference Games: @ Houston, Texas State, Army, @ Tennessee
Schedule Notes
The Roadrunners are going to be tested really early with a nice array of nonconference opponents. Playing at Houston and Tennessee are going to be massive challenges while a home matchup against Army could be sneaky tough if they overlook them. The Nov, 25 contest at Tulane could decide who is home for the AAC title game as they are two of the top contenders.
Quarterback
Frank Harris
Roster Notes
This team is the frontrunner in the conference, as their offense should be the best. They have the bulk of the group returning including Harris, who threw for over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns in 2022. The team would have had their top three WRs returning, but Zakhari Franklin left in late April. The defense has a lot of talent back including Trey Moore who had eight sacks and 18 tackles for loss as a freshman. They’ve thrived for the most part in close games and because of all this, I don’t see much of a reason that they aren’t taking in the AAC title game.
Prediction
Slight lean to the over. This win total will be decided based on how you feel they will do at Houston in the opener and at FAU and North Texas in conference.
