Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 7/5)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Atlanta Braves @ Cleveland Guardians 

Braves -165 @ Guardians +140 — Total 10 (Caesars)

Atlanta and Cleveland have split the first two of a three-game interleague matchup, setting up a rubber match Wednesday evening at Progressive Field. I don’t have a bet in the K prop market in this one, but we’ll certainly be going after Cal Quantrill even with a favorable pitcher’s umpire behind the dish. 

If you’ve followed my work (or seen some of my tweets) you’ll know that I’m not a fan of Quantrill. He’s been quite fortunate beating out his peripherals for the last few seasons, but it looks like his luck has run out in 2023. The 28-year-old has posted career highs in ERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA this season. Quantrill never missed bats at an above-average rate, and his 7.4% SwStr% is the lowest of his career, while he’s getting fewer swings and misses on pitches in the strike zone, with a career-worst 89% z-contact%. Opponents have gone over this total in the righty’s last five starts, with him posting a 10.03 ERA and 5.57 FIP over that stretch. Quantrill throws his sinker 46% of the time, it carries a .310 xBA and .563 xSLG. The righty ranks in the bottom 10 percentile when it comes to expected batting average, expected slugging, expected ERA, whiff% and K%. Instead of writing another 500 words on his struggles, check out his percentile rankings via BaseballSavant below. 

Only the Rangers average more runs per game than the Braves’ 5.64 – and nobody scores more runs than the Braves on the road. You’ll find the Braves at the top of the leaderboard in most offensive statistics. Over the last 30 days, Atlanta has the best wRC+ in the show at 152 against right-handed pitching, they rank second behind the Rays for the season. Their 163 home runs lead the majors by almost 30. You can find the Bravos at the top of the expected leaderboards as well, leading the majors in xBA, xSLG and xWOBA. Atlanta is one of three clubs with a double-digit barrel rate, leading MLB at 12.3%. I mentioned Quantrill’s sinker usage above, Atlanta ranks third or better in batting average, home runs and slugging percentage against that offering. Overall Atlanta has cashed the fifth-most team total overs this season. 

I’m projecting Cal Quantrill to struggle his way through about five innings Wednesday evening as the Braves should have their way with the righty. It helps that the Guardians have had to use most of their relief arms over the last three days. As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bet

Braves TT Over 5.5 (-105, Caesars)