Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 6/21)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Boston Red Sox @ Minnesota Twins 

Red Sox +102 @ Twins -120 — Total 8.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Boston and Minnesota play the third of a four-game set Wednesday at Target Field. We’ve seen a bunch of scoring so far in the series, as the Red Sox have won the first two games by a combined score of 19-7. Garrett Whitlock and Sonny Gray face off as the Twins look to snap a three-game losing streak. I have a bet on a side on this one, but the official play is a K prop. 

Garrett Whitlock is finding his form after missing time with elbow and hip injuries. His strikeout percentage is only at 20.9% for the season but he’s bumped that up to 24% in three starts in June. The righty has posted a 15.2% swinging-strike percentage in that stretch and has gone over this number in two of his three starts, missing by the hook against the Rays. Whitlock’s best punchout pitch has been his sweeper and it’s great to see him up its usage over his last few starts (image below via BaseballSavant). 

The righty’s sweeper has been tough on hitters, with a 38.2% K% and 51.4% whiff%. I’d love to see him continue to feature the pitch at least 25% of the time as it’s played a pivotal role in his strikeout and swinging-strike percentages increasing. The 27-year-old’s second-best strikeout pitch has been his changeup – posting a 25% K% with the offering, and it’s a pitch Minnesota has struggled with this season. Overall, Whitlock’s chase rate ranks in the 96th percentile. 

The Twins still have the highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season at 27% and that number has increased to 30.8% over the last 30 days. Minnesota is the only MLB club to average over 10 strikeouts a game this season (10.30). I mentioned the Twins’ struggles against changeups this year — their 27.1% K% is the third-highest in baseball. Not surprisingly, Minnesota has the lowest contact% in baseball at 73% and only two clubs make less contact on pitches inside the strike zone than the Twinkies. Their 12.7% swinging-strike percentage is also the third-worst in the show. 

I’m projecting Garrett Whitlock to pitch about six innings Wednesday evening and K the six Twins we need to cash. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.

Bet

Garrett Whitlock Over 5.5 K’s (-106, FanDuel Sportsbook)