NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We’ve got a series on our hands as the Miami Heat continue their improbable run toward an NBA championship. After the Heat were able to steal Game 2 on the road with the help of another late-game offensive explosion, both teams sit just three wins away from hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy. As the series shifts to South Beach Wednesday, let’s have some fun and take a look at the “First Basket” props for Game 3.
Nikola Jokic and Bam Adebayo have, to nobody’s surprise, faced off in the center circle to jump it up through the first two games. During the 2023 season and through the playoffs, Denver has won the tap in 47.5% of games compared to 52.9% for Miami. Jokic has a two-inch and about a 30-pound size advantage over Adebayo, and the two teams have split the tap, each winning one in Denver. But if you go back and watch those jump balls, Adebayo actually controls both. In Game 1, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is able to snag the tip from Adebayo because Caleb Martin inexplicably moved from Caldwell-Pope’s left (where Bam tapped the ball) to his right just before the ball was tossed.
Jokic controlled most tips against Karl-Anthony Towns in the first round and against Jock Landale near the end of the second round but has struggled to win the first possession against opposing centers like Deandre Ayton, Anthony Davis and now Bam Adebayo. Adebayo on the other hand got the better of Brook Lopez and Al Horford for the most part this postseason and was largely unsuccessful against more athletic centers like Mitchell Robinson and Robert Williams.
I’m going with Miami to win the tip here, but now we’ve got to figure out who’s going to score the first basket. Adebayo leads Miami this season, scoring the first basket in 10.4% of games. He also leads the Heat in the 2023 playoffs, scoring the first basket in six of 20 postseason games. He’s got the shortest odds of any Miami player on DraftKings Sportsbook as of this writing at +475. That’s the safest way to go, but I’d argue there’s a sneakier pick here. No, it’s not Jimmy Butler, who has scored the first bucket for Miami in 8.3% of games this season and three of 20 postseason tilts. He hasn’t scored the first basket for the Heat since the second round.
Let’s take a look at Kevin Love. The veteran forward was thrust back into the starting five in Game 2 after catching a DNP-CD in Game 1. Love has appeared in 17 of the 20 postseason games for Miami, starting 15 of them. Of those starts, he has scored the first basket for Miami in four games, the second most of any Heat player in the postseason and by far the highest percentage of games (excluding Tyler Herro, who scored first in Game 1 of the first round before exiting with an injury).
Kevin Love has the longest odds out of any starter for either team on DK at the time of this writing at +1100. You want safe? Go with Bam Adebayo. You want fun and sneaky with a single postseason’s worth data to back it up? Kevin Love is your guy, and that’s who I’m rolling with Wednesday as my pick for first basket scored.
