Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Wednesday 6/7)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds 

Dodgers -155 @ Reds +130 — Total 11 (BetMGM)

Through 11 starts the Dodgers haven’t been able to turn back the clock with Noah Syndergaard. The 30-year-old’s 15.3% strikeout percentage is the lowest of his career, as is his 8.4% swinging-strike percentage. He’s had trouble avoiding bats in the strike zone this season, as Syndergaard’s 89.4% zone-contact percentage is about 5% higher than his career mark and worst since 2017 (not counting the two innings he tossed in 2021). The righty’s K percentage and whiff percentage sit in the 10th percentile. Syndergaard has stayed under this strikeout total in eight of his 11 starts this season, including seven of his last eight starts.

The Reds are far from the most disciplined club as their strikeout percentage against right-handed pitchers sits at 23.8% for the year, the 10th highest. They’ve cut down on their K’s over the last month by about a percent and they sit in the middle of the pack (14th). Cincy’s K percentage is 21% over the last 14 days and they’ve been making good contact on pitches in the zone with an 87.3% Z-contact%. Overall, their 10.5% swinging-strike percentage is the 21st highest in baseball. 

I’m projecting Noah Syndergaard to pitch around five innings Wednesday and K three or four Reds at Great American Ball Park. Frank Brank’s Strikeout Model agrees with this under; Frank projects Syndergaard for 3.43 punchouts. As always, check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.

Bet

Noah Syndergaard Under 4.5 K’s (-140, BetMGM)