Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Welcome to this Friday edition of MLB best bets at FTN. My betting strategy is different from what you may be accustomed to, especially if you’re a consistent follower of the superstar that is MLBdream. I’m not on the hunt for wins, I’m on the hunt for the largest edges possible. Typically, I find these in longshot bets. Hopefully some of you have been tailing along this PGA season, for example:
In baseball, the most common longshot bets you’ll see me make are K ladders and stolen base SGPs. Friday, it’s a K ladder that jumps off the page to me.
Best MLB Bets for Friday
Shohei Ohtani 8+, 9+, 10+, 11+, 12+ K’s
+110, +215, +400, +750, and +1300, FanDuel Sportsbook
Let’s begin with a look at the Strikeout Model. Shohei Ohtani is projected for 8.96 K’s, in large part due to an outrageous projection of fewer than 14 pitches per inning. Pitches per inning is a crucial piece of the puzzle as it helps determine how deep into the game a pitcher will last. So, what’s driving such an efficient projection? Pretty much everything.
The Royals have not been good. In the last two weeks, their wRC+ has plummeted to 67.4 (53.4 in the L7). At the same time, they’re striking out a lot (26%) and rarely walking (4.6%). In fact, only three teams in baseball have faced fewer pitches per plate appearance. In other words, they’re making frequent outs, and doing so quickly despite an elevated K rate.
Now, let’s look at how Ohtani’s hit rates compare to the implied probability of each step of the ladder since the start of last season:
- 8+ K’s: 16/32 (50.0%) vs. an implied probability of 47.6%
- 9+ K’s: 13/32 (40.1%) vs. an implied probability of 31.8%
- 10+ K’s: 11/32 (34.4%) vs. an implied probability of 20%
- 11+ K’s: 7/32 (21.9%) vs. an implied probability of 11.8%
- 12+ K’s: 3/32 (9.4%) vs. an implied probability of 7.1%
This would be a strong ladder in a neutral matchup, let alone one where Ohtani stands to benefit so greatly from his opponent’s lack of plate discipline. It’s also worth noting that if anything, Ohtani now has a longer leash than he has for much of his career and his CSW is up to 32% to start the season.
At the moment, this is all I have for Friday, but keep an eye on the tracker for more throughout the day. I’m also going to hammer PrizePicks (use promo code FTN when depositing) this season for as long as they allow us to dramatically correlate picks without reducing the payout odds. We’re off to a tremendous start in that regard:
