Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, MLBdream provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
Tigers +230 @ Rays -275; Total 7.5 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Our free plays are off to a great start this season, and we look to keep it rolling with a walk prop Saturday. I’ve been looking for ways to back the Rays pretty much every day, and the Shintaro Fujinami walk number prop should get us in the win column.
Fujinami walked three Angels in 2.1 innings in his Athletics debut, and the Angels aren’t the most disciplined club — they ranked in the bottom eight in walk rate last season. Most projection systems have Fujinami to walk 4.5-5 batters per 9 innings this season. Dylan Cease led qualified starters last year with a BB% over 10% — Fujinami’s projected 12% BB% should end up being one of the highest in baseball this season. The 28-year-old righty has a nasty splitter but regularly loses control of the zone. Fujinami averaged over four walks per nine in 10 seasons in Japan, posting a BB/9 between 5 and 7 in four seasons.
The Rays ranked just outside the top 10 in walk percentage last season, and they’ve increased their walks so far this year in a small sample size. This is certainly more of a fade on Fujinami, who has had trouble with his control throughout his career.
I’m projecting Fujinami to pitch less than five innings against the Rays Saturday, and he should end up with enough walks to cash our over. I played this at -143 this morning but it should be good up to -170. As always, be sure to check out FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number on the market.
Bet
Shintaro Fujinami Over 1.5 BBs (-160, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Edit: This has already moved a ton but some books will allow you to parlay Shintaro Fujinami Over 1.5 BBs / Rays ML at around +100. I like that just as much as the original bet.
