Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We are just two days away from the end of the NBA regular season, with most playoff teams already locked in. However, there are still major seeding implications yet to be determined as we embrace Friday’s robust 11-game slate.
In the Eastern Conference, the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat continue to battle for the right to play the No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers. Miami destroyed a minimally motivated Philadelphia team Thursday night, 129-101. Only the 10th-seeded Chicago Bulls are locked into their play-in game spot, with the Nos. 7, 8 and 9 seeds still to be finalized.
In the Western Conference, the Clippers, Warriors, Lakers, Pelicans, Timberwolves, Thunder and Mavericks are all fighting for playoff spots No. 5 through No. 10. Two of these teams will earn automatic berths, and one will be eliminated from play-in contention. The rest will go to the play-in tournament for seeds 7 through 10.
Five of Friday’s 11 games feature point spreads of eight points or more, but that can dramatically change over the course of the day. With so much roster uncertainty, please keep a close watch on actives and inactives before finalizing your bets. The FTN NBA Betting model has been very profitable throughout the season, so make sure to find where we project our biggest edges on the NBA Friday slate.
NBA Best Bets
New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans
New York +8 (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The New Orleans Pelicans clinched a playoff berth after a 138-131 OT battle over Memphis Wednesday night. However, that was against a Grizzlies team that rested Ja Morant (left hip), Luke Kennard (right ankle) and Xavier Tillman (right ankle). That victory guaranteed the Pelicans (41-39) at least a top-nine finish in the Western Conference, but how badly do they want to play for seeding over their final two games? They could still theoretically get into the top six, bypassing the play-in game, but they would need help from the Clippers and Warriors. With so much uncertainty, especially after a draining battle against a limited Grizzlies team, I’m grabbing the points with the Knicks.
Despite being locked into the fifth seed, head coach Tom Thibodeau has a history of keeping his team competitive. He played four of his starters over 37 minutes in Wednesday’s game at Indiana, a team that is in full tank mode for the NBA Draft. Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin and Quentin Grimes all posted over 30 points with five 3PM each. RJ Barrett also missed his second consecutive game with an illness, which could mean he sees some minutes in this game to stay sharp for the playoffs.
New York is the third-best team in the NBA against the spread this season, at 44-33-3, including 26-14 ATS on the road. I don’t think Thibodeau gives up on this game, and I’m not even sure of the motivation for the Pelicans.
Our NBA model gives this an 11.7% edge, making our first pick Knicks +8.
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets
Over 216.5 (-110, BetMGM)
The Brooklyn Nets have ended the season on a scoring streak, posting 123 or more points in four of the last seven games. Orlando has been just as hot, posting 111 or more points in six of their last eight contests. Even last night without star Paolo Banchero, the Magic tallied 42 points in their opening quarter against the defensive-minded Cleveland Cavaliers. Orlando ranks 14th in the NBA in pace and will see far less resistance against a Brooklyn team that just allowed 108 points to a short-handed and underachieving Detroit team.
This line opened at 225.5 but has overcorrected to 216.5 points at the current market. Brooklyn has been one of the best under teams this season but has hit the over in five of their last nine games. The Magic’s recent scoring trend has coincided with three overs in their past four games.
Even with Banchero ruled out, I’m taking this number over 216.5. Our model gives this bet a 5.1% edge over the market.
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets
Jalen Green Over 24.5 Points (-109, Caesars)
The 21-year-old explosive guard from Houston has been on fire to end his second season. Jalen Green has posted 30 or more points in three of his last six games, including two 32-point outings in his last three contests. He now faces a Charlotte team that he blowtorched for 41 points back in January.
Neither team has much motivation, but Green is getting big minutes and the majority of shot attempts. I always like backing young, talented, players late in the season. We project Green for 25.4 points on 36.8 minutes Friday.
