Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 4/6)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks. 

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Los Angels Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Dodgers -150 @ Diamondbacks +125; Total 9 (BetMGM)

Our free plays have gotten off to a great start this 2023 season, as Shohei Ohtani and the Halos cashed the F5 run line for us Wednesday. Thursday we head to Arizona, where the Diamondbacks are hosting the Dodgers in their home opener. We already have our first rematch of the season as Dustin May and Merrill Kelly face off again. Instead of a side, we’ll be backing the Dodgers to score some runs with over 4.5 runs on their team total. 

I am not someone who believes in hitter vs. pitcher history — the samples are simply too small to be predictive. However, I do like to see how teams fared against pitchers in their previous matchups (especially within the division, since we get bigger samples) but I look more at the contact metrics and some of the expected stats. Last season in five starts against the Dodgers, Kelly had a 6.07 FIP, .437 wOBA, 9.7 K-BB% and a slash line of .330/.416/.629 against. Against the rest of the league (28 starts) Kelly had a 3.32 FIP, 2.65 wOBA, 15.2% K-BB% with a .210/.265/.332 slash line. Again, this alone isn’t a reason to bet on or against a team, but it sure does seem like the Dodgers see Kelly well. Last week at Dodger Stadium, Kelly pitched 3.2 scoreless innings while allowing three hits and four walks. He was fortunate to exit the game without allowing a run. As the Dodgers posted a .339 expected batting average, a .636 expected slugging percentage, and a hard hit percentage over 67% against Arizona’s starter. Kelly is projected to have a mid-four ERA this season, about a run higher than his 2022 3.37 ERA. As the 34-year-old got barreled plenty last season, finishing in the 31st percentile in barrel percentage. The roof will be open at Chase Field which should give these two offenses a boost — we’ve seen about a 4-6% increase in runs with the roof open over the last three seasons in Arizona. 

The Dodgers led baseball in runs per game last season. While losing Trea Tuner definitely hurts, their lineup is still deep enough to post some crooked numbers. It’s a small sample of only six games but we already see Los Angeles at the top of the MLB hitting leaderboard and I’m expecting them to still be near there come September. The Dodgers are leading the majors in wOBA and ranking second in both wRC+ and runs scored. One of my favorite additions to the LAD lineup is James Outman, who has earned an everyday job after lighting up minor league pitching over the last couple of seasons. The 25-year-old lefty is going to be a household name in no time. 

I’m projecting Kelly to labor his way through about five innings Thursday evening while giving up about three runs. The Dodgers shouldn’t have too much trouble getting two more runs off a Dbacks bullpen that is projected to finish in the bottom third of the league. I’m expecting the Dodgers bats to square up Kelly plenty and for actual numbers to be closer to the xStats we discussed, as I have the Dodgers projected for a little more than five runs.  As always, be sure to use the FTN Prop Shop to make sure you’re betting the best number available.

Bets

Dodgers TT Over 4.5 -120 (BetMGM)