Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
March Madness has officially arrived. The First Four doesn’t typically have a huge impact on your bracket pool, but both VCU (2011) and UCLA (2021) blew things up by going from First Four to Final Four, so anything is possible.
For the 11-seeds, the possibility of that dream Final Four run is still alive after squeaking into the Big Dance. For the 16-seeds, it’s about being the next UMBC, getting exposure on national television, winning an NCAA tournament game and being cemented in their university’s record books. For bettors, it’s a switch from conference rivalries and homecourt advantages to unfamiliar foes and neutral sites (all four games are in Dayton, Ohio). It’s great to handicap teams without the additional noise that conference play brings, so on that note, let’s take a hard look at each First Four matchup.
(All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
NCAA First Four: Tuesday Games
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Southeastern Missouri State
Spread: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -4
Over/Under: 153.5
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: truTV
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (23-10, 14-4) captured the Southland Conference tournament title after pacing the league in the regular season with a 14-4 record. The Islanders brought a ton of minutes back from last season’s team that played (and lost) in the First Four, so they aren’t short on experience. Corpus Christi’s identity lies within its offense as it plays fast, shoots 37% from downtown and sinks free throws at a ridiculous 80% clip. Defensively, they’re susceptible to foul trouble and getting handled in the paint due to a lack of size, but the Islanders do steal the ball from opponents at a top-50 rate in the nation.
Southeast Missouri State (19-16. 10-8) enters as champions of the Ohio Valley Conference tournament despite finishing tied for third in the regular season. Similar to Corpus Christi, SEMO is one of the smallest teams in the nation, but the Redhawks don’t have quite as much experience as the Islanders. SEMO plays at one of the fastest paces in the country, loves to get to the free throw line and fouls at nearly the highest rate in the nation.
I like Texas A&M Corpus Christi to lean on its experience and take advantage of SEMO’s inability to defend without fouling. Give me the Islanders.
The Pick
Texas A&M Corpus Christi -4
Pittsburgh vs. Mississippi State
Spread: Mississippi State -2
Over/Under: 131.5
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
TV: truTV
This is a matchup of strength on strength, as Mississippi State’s elite defense will attempt to stifle Pitt’s high-powered offense. The Pitt Panthers (22-11, 14-6) earned an at-large bid out of the ACC, but they enter as losers of three of their last four games, including a 27-point beatdown at the hands of Duke in the ACC Tournament. The Panthers like to generate offense via the three ball, shooting it at over 36% and taking nearly half of the field goal attempts from downtown. On defense, this veteran group of transfers is merely average but is vulnerable on the boards.
Mississippi State (21-12, 8-10) will look to bring its top-10 defense to Dayton. The Bulldogs play an ugly style of basketball centered around physicality, rebounding, defense and just about anything besides shooting. Mississippi State is the worst three-point shooting team in the country, but they rebound over 35% of their missed shots thanks in large part to stud center Tolu Smith. Smith should be able to have his way with Pitt on the inside and I trust that the SEC prepared them for the tournament a lot better than the ACC prepared Pitt.
The Pick
Mississippi State -2
NCAA First Four: Wednesday Games
Fairleigh Dickinson vs. Texas Southern
Spread: Texas Southern -3.5
Over/Under: 148.5
Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
TV: truTV
Fairleigh Dickinson (19-15, 10-6) finds itself in the First Four after qualifying for the NCAA Tournament despite losing its conference title game due to Merrimack’s ineligibility. The Knights finished tied for second in the Northeast Conference despite having one of the country’s worst defenses per Kenpom. FDU’s strength is certainly on the offensive side of the ball, where it takes great care of the ball, rebounds well and shoots the three a bit better than the average team.
Texas Southern (14-20, 7-11) won its First Four game last season over the aforementioned Texas A&M Corpus Christi before losing to Kansas, but the team had a lot of turnover over the offseason. The Tigers can practically match FDU’s awful defense with one of the nation’s worst offenses. They shot just under 27% from three in conference play and turned the ball over on nearly 21% of their possessions. If there’s anything FDU is capable of on defense, it’s forcing turnovers. I’ll take the points with the better offense in this one.
The Pick
Fairleigh Dickinson +3.5
Nevada vs. Arizona State
Spread: Arizona State -1.5
Over/Under: 134.5
Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
TV: truTV
Arizona State (22-12, 11-9) narrowly earned an at-large bid out of the Pac-12 despite a rather unimpressive collection of top-tier wins. The Sun Devils’ two best wins were against a Creighton team missing Ryan Kalkbrenner and at Arizona on a buzzer-beating halfcourt heave. Other than that, ASU’s best win is against USC in the PAc-12 tournament. Bobby Hurley’s squad is atrocious offensively, particularly from beyond the arc, but they boast one of the nation’s best two-point defenses and force turnovers on over 20% of opponents’ possessions.
Nevada (22-10, 12-6) enters on a three-game losing streak that includes two overtime heartbreakers. The Wolfpack, relying heavily on its starters for production, rarely turns the ball over, gets to the free throw line a ton and drains nearly 80% of its freebies. They don’t rely on the three ball, but they did find their stroke a bit in Mountain West play, hitting from distance at a better than 35% clip. Overall, I trust Nevada to generate offense against ASU a lot more than I trust ASU to generate offense against Nevada’s lengthy defense.
The Pick
Nevada +1.5
