Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
This is a very solid slate of eight NBA games Tuesday. A few of those games do have spreads hovering around 10 points, which is always a concern when projections have some of those players listed way over their prop number. The projections are not wrong, but in order for those players to get their full run or exceed projected minutes the game needs to stay close.
That is not always the case when one team is superior to another as a 10-point spread would suggest. I had multiple players I liked from some of those big spread games, but ultimately I only played one of them to the over. Check out which one it is in today’s NBA Best Bets.
Best NBA Points Prop Bets
Anthony Edwards Over 25.5 Points
Anthony Edwards is the No. 1 scorer for this Timberwolves team with Karl Anthony-Towns out. He faces a 76ers team that has struggled defensively since the All-Star break. Joel Embiid is gutting it out through an injury, but you can see he is not 100%. The Sixers are not only on the road, but on the tail end of a B2B here, which should help the Timberwolves offense against tired legs. Over the last two weeks, the 76ers dropped to sixth worst in terms of points per 100 possessions allowed to their opponent. Edwards projects for about 10% over his prop number today and with all the arrows pointing in that direction, is worth a bet.
Kyrie Irving Over 25.5 Points
Kyrie Irving has always been a scorer. He has started to flash that ability in Dallas with 30 and 40 points in the last two games. More importantly he has settled into his new role. He has played at least 36 minutes in each of the last four games and has averaged 27 points on over 20 field goal attempts during this stretch. Tuesday’s matchup has a massive 243-point total, so the expectations are for a fast-paced high-scoring affair, which is exactly the kind of environment Kyrie thrives in.
Tyus Jones Over 15.5 Points
Tyus Jones had a third quarter for the ages on his way to 25 points last game. It helped cash his scoring over for the seventh time in ten games without Ja Morant. Jones has averaged just over 19 points in games without Ja. The Lakers have been a very fruitful matchup on the season for opposing guards, but that is a tricky number. The Lakers as a team were in the bottom of the league for points allowed, but the defense is much improved since the All-Star break. Over the last two weeks, the Lakers have given up just the fourth-most points per 100 possessions of any team in basketball, so the roster changes seem to have improved them on that side of the ball. Despite that improvement, minutes and opportunity still trump everything else, and thus Jones should see 32-36 minutes with Ja Morant taking his leave of absence.
