Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The 2022-23 college basketball season is in midseason form, and we get some exciting matchups as conference play begins and 2022 comes to an end. Below are my favorite bets for Wednesday’s slate. Let’s have some fun.
UConn vs. Providence
(Line: UConn -5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Operation “Fade UConn” is in full effect, and I’m not jumping off the train just yet. After reaching No. 1 in the KenPom rankings, UConn is now 0-3 ATS over their last three games and head into what should be a raucous environment at the Amica Mutual Pavilion (formerly the Dunk). Providence is surging right now, winners of seven straight and sitting atop the Big East standings with a 4-0 record. In what should be a back-and-forth game, I will gladly be taking the points here as I have this game capped closed to a pick. UConn’s size and length has given teams problems all season long, running shooters off the three-point line (fifth nationally in 3pt FGA defense) and funneling them into their elite rim protectors (20th nationally in 2pt FG% defense). Yet, Providence offensively doesn’t rely on the three (322nd in 3pt FGA offense) and have elite finishers at the rim in Bryce Hopkins and Ed Croswell. UConn’s lengthy defenders on the perimeter are stingy in isolation but the Ed Cooley’s flex offense and off ball movement should be able to generate enough points in this one to keep this competitive. What this game will come down to is the play of Friar point guard Jared Bynum, who after getting off to a slow start to the season has been playing at a high level since conference play began. If the Jared Bynum from last year is here to stay, Providence has a good shot at knocking off UConn here.
The Pick
Providence +5
Illinois vs. Northwestern
(Line: Illinois -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This one is a little scary with the uncertainty around the state of the Illinois locker room, which has looked to be in flux ever since they’re blowout loss to Penn State. But there is a massive talent gap between these two teams as we just saw Ohio State smash Northwestern on their home floor, and I have Illinois ranked higher than the Buckeyes. Northwestern’s strength lies behind their packed in defense that allows nothing at the rim (best team in the country in 2pt FG% defense) and forces opponents to shoot a ton of threes. The Illini offense wants to get out and run to get easy buckets in transition, and when in the halfcourt a large percentage of their shots come from the three-point line (46%), which they should have a lot of open looks here. The Wildcat offense has struggled at times this year behind inefficient volume shooters Boo Buie and Chase Audige, and the high-pressure Illini defense (which has had struggles of their own this year) should be able to force Northwestern into more poor quality shots. Brad Underwood shook the rotation up in their last game, moving big man Dain Dainja into the starting lineup and Swiss Army knife Coleman Hawkins to the 4, which gives them much better balance on offense and the team seemed to respond great to the change. I think Illinois rights the ship here on the road and need this win against an inferior team if they want a shot at competing atop of the Big Ten.
The Pick
Illinois -2.5
