Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
This week, we are looking at the biggest matchups that provide us with the best money-making opportunities across college football. After breaking down this week’s best games, these are the lines in these big games where I see the largest edges in the market.
If you have been keeping up with this piece all season, thank you for your support and let’s close out this year in a big way.
No. 4 USC vs. No. 11 Utah
(USC -3, O/U 67.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)
When these two Pac-12 teams faced off in October, it was thought that Utah’s close victory ended all playoff hopes for the Trojans. Now they will meet again Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and USC will have an opportunity to win and get into the CFP after all.
The last time these two faced off, it was an all-out offensive explosion. USC had a 94th percentile success rate on offense to Utah’s 97th percentile success rate. These two teams had EPA per plays in the 96th and 98th percentiles as well.
This outcome shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. USC has one of the best offenses in the country (second in SP+) and is led by Caleb Williams, who is currently the heavy favorite to take home the Heisman Trophy. Utah’s offense is ranked 25th by SP+, but USC’s mediocre defense lends itself to these high-scoring affairs.
USC has had the benefit of some massive turnover luck this season. The Trojans lead the nation with a +1.8 turnover margin per game. The next closest team to them is at just 1.3. This is tied for the third-highest mark of the last 10 years, and it has to be expected that this luck will run out at some point.
The Utes match up very well with USC and these two teams are essentially equals in the eyes of SP+. Utah is ranked one spot ahead of USC in SP+ and is rated 0.3 points higher. I’ll take the team that is more experienced in this situation with the experienced head coach to cover this spread and potentially knock their conference foes out of a CFP spot.
The Pick
Utah +3
No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 14 LSU
(Georgia -17.5, O/U 52.5, BetMGM)
For the first time in a while, the SEC Championship likely has no serious CFP implications. Georgia, even with a loss, has firmly earned a playoff berth this year. LSU may have had a chance to sneak in with a win this week, but they lost that chance when they fell to Texas A&M a week ago.
Coming off that unexpected loss, Brian Kelly’s squad will now have to travel to Atlanta and take on the defending National Champions and current No. 1 team in the country. The offense has carried LSU to the record they have right now for the most part, but they have also faced an easier schedule of opposing defenses.
The LSU offense ranks 10th in success rate. They are 23rd in passing success rate and second in rushing success but haven’t been very explosive in either facet, ranking 112th in explosiveness. By SP+ this offense ranks 37th in the country, which is likely a better reflection of who they are based on the schedule they have faced.
The opposite can be said for their defense. The Tigers’ defense ranks 36th in success rate but 23rd in SP+. They have been mediocre against the run (68th in SR, 71st in PPA), but have one of the better passing defenses in the SEC. LSU ranks 13th in passing success rate allowed and 21st in passing PPA allowed. Their 112th ranking in explosiveness allowed against the pass could be a bit of a concern, but passing explosiveness is the Achilles’ heel of Georgia’s offense.
Georgia has the fourth-best offense by success rate but 26th by SP+. They rank seventh in rushing success rate and second in passing success rate but are one of the least explosive offenses in a power five conference. The Bulldogs rank 108th in explosiveness overall, 65th when rushing and 124th when passing.
This Bulldogs’ defense may not be on quite the same level as they were last season (almost impossible), but they are still ranked as the best defense in the country by SP+. This team is fourth in success rate and second in finishing drives. Georgia ranks fifth in rushing success rate allowed and third in passing success rate allowed.
Georgia’s offense may struggle a bit with this tough LSU defense, but they will still be able to have a decent day. I’m not sure the same can be said for the Tigers. Against this dominant Georgia defense, I would expect that the LSU offense has a hard time putting points on the board and this turns into a lower-scoring affair than expected.
The Pick
Under 52.5. Bet to 52
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Kansas State
(TCU -2.5, O/U 61.5, BetMGM)
Similar to USC-Utah, this game will be another conference championship matchup between two teams that have already played this season, with one team having a CFP berth on the line.
The first time these two teams played, TCU pulled out a 38-28 win, but that doesn’t tell the full story. Adrian Martinez started off the game at quarterback for the Wildcats but was injured on the first drive. Will Howard came into the game and gave K-State a 28-10 lead at one point in the first half. That is where the scoring would end though for the Wildcats as they then threw two interceptions, missed two field goals, and had a turnover on downs in the second half. On the first drive of that half, Will Howard was hurt as well and so Kansas State was forced to turn to their third-string quarterback in relief.
With everything that went right in this game the first time for TCU, you would think that would mean that Kansas State is actually the better team. However, TCU has one of the best offenses in the country and they looked strong that day as well.
TCU ranks seventh in SP+ in offense and is the fifth-most explosive offense in the country. They only rank 40th in overall success rate on offense but have done a strong job of avoiding turnovers and cashing in on their opportunities. A lot of credit goes to Max Duggan as he had led the Horned Frogs to the 12th-best passing PPA in the country and 5th most explosive passing offense.
Will Howard will get the start for the Wildcats under center. Howard has been an efficient passer and is helping Kansas State to avoid turnovers. Overall, this K-State offense ranks 29th by SP+ and is 35th in finishing drives. Their rushing attack has been extraordinarily explosive, ranking 15th in rushing explosiveness on the legs of Deuce Vaughn.
Even though Kansas State won this matchup the last time these teams played, I think that TCU is the overall better team. They have gotten lucky at points this season but as this number is under 2.5, I’ll lay it with the Horned Frogs this weekend and hope to see them in the College Football Playoffs.
The Pick
TCU -2.5. Bet to -3
No. 2 Michigan vs. Purdue
(Michigan -16.5, O/U 51.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Michigan is coming off a huge victory against Ohio State last week that essentially locked them into the CFP and left the Buckeyes’ playoff hopes on life support. Michigan is the No. 2 team in SP+ and has been one of the best teams all season.
Purdue, on the other hand, needed some help to just barely qualify for the Big Ten Championship. Finishing at 8-4, the Boilermakers were able to win the Big Ten West with Iowa’s upset loss to Nebraska last Friday.
Purdue is a solid team, but they are likely no match for Michigan. The Boilermakers rank 47th in SP+, 50th in offense and 39th in defense. They are 25th in defensive success rate and 29th against the run. Michigan’s explosive rushing offense proved to be the difference last weekend, but Purdue does rank 32nd in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Purdue’s offense has been their problem for much of the season. They rank 48th in offensive success rate but 128th in offensive explosiveness. This problem comes from both the pass and rush games, where they rank 122nd and 127th in explosiveness, respectively. Against a Michigan offense that is seventh in success rate and 25th in explosiveness allowed, it’s unlikely that Purdue will be able to have much success with putting together sustained drives against the Wolverines and they won’t have much luck generating explosive plays against them either.
While Purdue’s defense has been strong, Michigan ranks sixth in rushing success rate and 16th in passing success rate. J.J. McCarthy and this Wolverines offense have been one of the best units in the country this season and I don’t think that Purdue has the athletes to make this a game. SP+ has this as a 24.3-point Michigan victory, so I feel comfortable laying the -16.5 needed to cover this.
The Pick
Michigan -16.5. Bet to -17
