CS:GO game-by-game breakdown (March 7)

We are back with another major event for CS:GO with the ESL Pro League Season 13 event, which features 24 teams. We will see the same teams multiple times in a row, but with different matchups for about four to five days at a time, so this may get slightly repetitive. DraftKings has been whiffing it with the contests, so as we continue to see the same teams daily, we will be able to find the edge easier.

To kick off this event, we get a three-game slate with some teams that just have no reason to be in this event but will most likely find ways to upset their opponents. Let us dive in and find our favorite stacks and top plays of the slate.

Complexity (-200) vs. FunPlus Phoenix (+151)

We are opening this early-morning slate with a Tier 1 team, Complexity, trying to find its way back to form, while the other side, FunPlus Phoenix, is looking to keep its momentum rolling with a huge upset. Complexity had started the 2021 season rough while they waited for poizon to return from surgery and have shown some bright spots, but there have still been inconsistencies on the way. FunPlus Phoenix has now won three straight with a huge 2-1 win vs. the IEM Katowice Champions, Gambit. What we need to note is that FunPlus Phoenix is actually GODSENT, the roster was just bought out. These two teams have only met once before in March of 2020 where Complexity won 2-0, winning 16-11 on both maps.

These two teams are almost similar when it comes to looking at stats on paper. While both teams do sweep at a high rate, FPP knows how to close out a series if it comes down to it while Complexity usually gets swept which they sit at a 38% rate. Now for the Rounds Not Played bonus, if Complexity can dominate once again, they may be in store for a huge bonus as FPP usually only wins eight rounds in a map loss. There is much risk on both sides due to Complexity being swept at a high rate and then FPP usually don’t win many rounds in a map loss.

For stacking purposes, Complexity is pretty straightforward, as we want to build with blameF and poizon, the top two fraggers of the team. BlameF looks a lot better when he has the original starting lineup and poizon is a great support and still holds a 1.11 player rating. Now the next in the stacking option for them is k0nfig. He actually looks better than poizon at times and his 1.06 player rating does not represent that. For a pivot option, it gets very risky here, but jks is actually coming off a nice performance vs. OG as he put up a +14 K/D difference. RUSH is also just as risky but brings a lower ceiling and usually ends up drying more than anything.

For FunPlus Phoenix, zehN and farlig are my main targets. ZehN just holds a 1.09 player rating and is tailed by farlig pretty closely as he holds a 1.07 player rating. HLTV also currently holds suNny in as a starting player but chrisJ has been in the last three series so there is much risk right there so avoid both players. Maden is the more consistent lock even though STYKO has shown some improvements in his play lately but in all honestly, I would just keep it to zehN and Farlig for a FunPlus Phoenix stack.

Prediction: Complexity 2-0
Captain options: blameF, k0nfig (RISK)
Flex options: poizon, JKS, zehN, Farlig

Heroic (-526) vs. Renegades (+345)

This could be the chalk play of the slate, as Heroic are huge favorites here vs. Renegades, who have only logged three series recently and just six maps logged. We will keep this one pretty simple as I don’t think Renegades make a statement to kick this event off. For Heroic, they have actually started gaining some momentum with two sweeps in a row against VOYVODA and Cloud9. Usually, I break the stats on paper in their own paragraph. There’s no need to do that here, but I will say Heroic is sweeping their opponents at a 42% rate currently.

For Renegades, there is very little that is desired to roll out but if you are boarding the crazy train, load up on INS and aliStair. They are the two top fraggers of the team and bring major upside when momentum is rolling. AliStair put up a +13 vs. TeamOne in the IEM Katowice event while INS went just +1 but with 57 frags.

Now for Heroic, we have a few different options, but they did recently bench b0rup and niko for the additions of sjuush and refrezh. There isn’t much desired for refresh, as he has never been anything more than a meat shield at times but sjuush brings upside as he has held a 1.20 player rating the past three months. Sjuush does move to the third option even with his rating as cadiaN and stavn are stil the top fraggers during series (which they did in the past two sweeps). Now I am still a fan of TeSeS but with the new additions, he isn’t being as dominate in his play, which has me slightly concerned for this series. I would stick to the stacking/pairing of cadiaN and stavn but rotating out sjuush or even going a three-man stack here as Heroic should sweep.

Prediction: Heroic 2-0
Captain options: cadiaN, stavn, sjuush (RISK)
Flex options: TeSeS, INS, alistair

BIG (-250) vs. OG (+185)

This is a series I am excited to watch because OG made a very surprising move ahead of this event and benched NBK- over ISSAA, who is currently having travel restrictions due to COVID-19 and is slightly holding this team back. That also means we have no clue who OG will roll out as their fifth man, but there are rumors it could be niko (Heroic) who is standing in during the Dreamhack Master qualifiers. Their opponents, BIG, are also having some trouble to kick their 2021 season off and are currently coming off of two huge losses vs. Heroic and G2. This will be a very interesting series to witness as these two teams have a lot of history between the two. BIG currently holds that battle with five series wins, two being recent sweeps, and OG has taken three of the eight over the 2020 year.

When it comes to the stats on paper, BIG just pops a lot as they are sweeping opponents at a 40% rate but also being swept at a 30% rate. OG are rarely winning currently but are also being swept at a 47% rate, which screams trouble with them here, especially with a fifth starter that has yet to be announced for this event. Form wise, both teams are just playing at a consistent rate but are not improving or even declining in play.

For BIG, there are two two-man stacks that you can go with, but one brings more risk. The first one that could be more dominant is syrsoN and XANTARES. SyrsoN holds a 1.15 player rating while XANTARES is holding a 1.08 player rating which brings the “safer’ stack of BIG. For the other two-man pairing is k1to and tabseN but this is the more rsikier stack. TabseN is the more consistent player of the stack and holds a 1.07 player rating and could technically be the third man in the syrsoN/XANTARES stack. For k1to, he currently holds a 0.98 player rating but brings risk and lower ceiling.

Now for OG, the main thing is if they do roll out niko for this event also, I do not mind him at low exposure but only at the flex position. For the true OG stack, valde and mantuu are going to be my main focuses. Valde currently holds a 1.12 player rating and usually finds his way to the top of the leaderboard. Mantuu is a solid second-man for the stack but even at captain, it’s a little risky, but on a three-game slate I am okay with it. We covered ISSAA’s issues already due to COVID-19 and not being able to travel so his ping (connection) does get higher than the others, but he’s a solid third-man stack option or a low exposed pivot option. I would also suggest some exposure to Aleksib, but I am leaning on the side of BIG and their chances at sweeping.

Prediction: BIG 2-0
Captain options: syrsoN, XANTARES, tabseN, valde
Flex options: k1to, mantuu, ISSAA

(I know I predicted each series to be a sweep but prioritizing on who has the higher chances of sweeping are: 1. Heroic 2. BIG 3. Complexity)