Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Denver Broncos

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Juggernaut John Elways. 

Booms

Courtland Sutton, WR

For a moment this offseason, Sutton looked like he could be pegged as the biggest breakout candidate of 2020. That’s not to say that he didn’t already break out last year, but the Broncos thin depth chart had him positioned to break into the top-10 wideouts.

Of course, things have changed a bit following the NFL draft, as Denver selected Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. But the good news is that I don’t expect either player to unseat Sutton as the alpha. Their presence in the offense does mean slightly fewer available targets, but Sutton still offers major fantasy upside.

The elephant in the room in Denver is their very uncertain quarterback situation. Sure, there’s some hope for Drew Lock, but his limited resume doesn’t necessarily pop at this point. Still, Sutton doesn’t necessarily need peak era John Elway under center to be successful. Sutton may not be positioned as a WR1 in fantasy drafts, but he’s still a top-20 option with some major weekly juice. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Courtland Sutton, WR

In a breakthrough campaign with a washed-up Joe Flacco and rough-edged Lock as his QBs, the former SMU Mustang whinnied. Though he bucked the competition repeatedly, many continue to unnecessarily downgrade him on draft-day cheat sheets. He was ridiculously good given the circumstances. As the vertical workhorse (7.9 yards per target), he accumulated 72 receptions, 1,112 receiving yards and six touchdowns. He also ranked appreciably in multiple advanced categories, including contested catch percentage, average depth of target (12.3) and yards after contact per reception. Studly. 

Lock’s maturation is critical for the third-year receiver to maintain or advance last season’s standout production. Jerry Jeudy, as accomplished a route-runner as he showed he could be at Alabama, is still a rookie. His learning curve, like any greenhorn, is elongated due to the current times. Even if he picks up Pat Shurmur’s system in a jiffy, Jeudy, through presence alone, could assist Sutton versus double coverage. Last year, the plus-sized weapon posted a modest success rate in those situations. 

It can’t be stressed enough how undervalued Sutton is at his WR19 (48.4) standing in average 0.5-PPR drafts. His ability to emerge victorious in one-on-one battles is remarkable. If Lock takes a step forward, the wideout lands in the WR10-WR14 range. — Brad Evans

Busts

Melvin Gordon, RB

Threat of a holdout clouded Gordon’s fantasy status at this time last year, and rightfully so, as he ended up missing the first four games of the season. Over that span, we saw Austin Ekeler emerge as a fantasy stud, which may have forced Gordon’s hand to return to the team. Regardless of the reason, he quickly reassumed lead duties and ended up being a fairly solid fantasy option, ranking 10th among running backs in fantasy scoring from Week 5 on.

But the writing was on the wall for a split with the Chargers, and Gordon bounced to Denver in free agency. And herein lies the problem. Unlike fellow veteran back Todd Gurley, Gordon landed in an extremely crowded backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman already in-house. While Gordon is the clear favorite to be the top dog, both players could eat into Gordon’s workload. Volume is king in fantasy football, especially at running back. So a decrease in workload is not what we want to hear about Gordon right now. It’s fine to draft him as a mid-range RB2, but don’t expect him to outperform that spot. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Phillip Lindsay, RB

The reason why my Royce Freeman tickets were gassed and torched over the past two seasons, the undrafted CU product flourished with back-to-back 1,000-yard tallies. His exceptional open-field burst and between-the-tackles toughness were on display last fall as he notched an 18.9% missed tackle rate and increased his YAC per attempt mark from 2.35 the year before to 2.71. 

However, Gordon’s arrival spells doom for the incumbent. Lindsay was a turnstile in pass protection in ‘19 slotting at RB59 in run-blocking efficiency. Expected to enter a strict platoon, it’s doubtful he receives anything more than 30-35% of the team’s opportunity share. Protecting Lock is paramount and Gordon, who is also an accomplished receiver and rusher, is the man for the job. 

Bottom line, Lindsay, operating as a change of pace, isn’t anything more than a bench back barring injury. Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Jordan Howard and Marlon Mack are sounder options available at a similar price point. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Jerry Jeudy, WR

Landing spot wasn’t necessarily kind to the highly touted rookie out of Alabama, as Jeudy landed on a depth chart with a clear No. 1 option in Sutton. Arguably the most polished route-runner in this year’s class, Jeudy is coming off two very productive seasons. He also flashed solid speed at the combine with a 4.45 40-yard dash time.

But with Sutton on the field, it’s going to be tough for Jeudy to see enough targets out of the gate to be anything more than a WR4 option. He’ll also face some potential challenges at quarterback with the very inexperience Lock under center in Denver. With all of that said, Jeudy does still come with sleeper appeal as a late-round option. He’s currently coming off the board as the No. 44 wide receiver. That price is a tad steep, but Jeudy does have the potential to offer a slight return on investment as a 10th- or 11th-round pick in 12-team leagues. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Drew Lock, QB

Elway’s failures at QB reads like an “In Memoriam” from every awards show — Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco. For one of the game’s all-time greats, he doesn’t exactly have a dead eye when it comes to evaluating passer talent. Again staring at a crossroads, the maligned GM is searching for the organization’s next Peyton Manning or, heck, Jay Cutler. 

Lock’s college tape during his Missouri days wasn’t exactly exhilarating. He feasted on the meek but was feeble against the mighty. Still, during a five-game tryout last year he completed 66.7% of his tosses inside the red-zone, totaled seven touchdowns and established an instant chemistry with Sutton. 

With field-stretcher Noah Fant on the roster combined with rookies Jeudy and the blazer Hamler, Lock has a real shot of reaching 4,000 yards with 24-26 touchdowns. Consider him a blue-plate superflex special at his 169.4 ADP (WR24). — Brad Evans