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NBA Best Bets of the Day (11/19)

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NBA prop betting has been one of my most successful and favorite things to do in the betting world over the last couple years. Over that timeframe, I have created, developed and continuously improved an NBA betting model that projects out each player’s stat line thanks to advanced data and several thousand simulated games. 

 

I use these projections and compare them against the lines across the different Sportsbooks to determine the best bets of the day.

Let’s get to it. 

Top Points Prop

Franz Wagner Over 19.5 Points

(-109, )

It’s a prime matchup for and the rest of these Magic players here against the Pacers, who rank 28th in DEF and play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Additionally, and remain out for Orlando, opening up more usage for Wagner, who has 20-plus points in six of his last nine games.

Top Assists Prop

Paul George Over 4.5 Assists

(+110, )

This is a great matchup for as well, as the Kings rank 26th in DEF, and my model has George for over 5 assists, so at +110 this is a bet the model likes. 

 

Top Rebounds Prop

De’Anthony Melton Over 5.5 Rebounds

(-155, )

is a good rebounding guard — he has at least 6 rebounds in each of his last four games — and with out, we can expect some more time on the floor for him in a pace-up spot against the Timberwolves. My model has Melton for nearly 8 rebounds, so taking this bet at 6.5 at plus-money is also appealing. 

 
Previous Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas from EV Insight Next Week 11 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jack Stoll from EV Insight
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