NHL DFS Core Plays (March 7)

Sunday brings us a full day of hockey, with a six-game NHL DFS slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel that starts at 5 p.m. ET. I will lay out my top lines to target, a few low ownership pivots and top defensemen.

Also, make sure you tune into our Discord for updates on line changes, injuries and confirmed starting goalies and talk lineup construction with the whole FTN NHL community including Chris Meaney, Russ Prentice, Neil Parker and Javi Prellezo.

Slate notes: The top projected lines will be popular, but should be the core of your builds in cash games. My low-ownership pivots are options if you are playing in large field tournaments or want to make sure your lineup is unique in a qualifier or single-entry field.

Eight of the 12 teams on Sunday’s slate are on their second leg of a back-to-back: Rangers, Devils, Penguins, Flyers, Panthers, Predators, Stars and Flames. This gives a slight rest edge to Hurricanes, Bruins, Capitals and Senators, but more importantly it will be critical to monitor starting goalies as we approach game times.

Top projected lines

Florida Panthers PP1: Patric Hornqvist, Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau
Boston Bruins Line 1: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak
Pittsburgh Penguins Line 1: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust
(Value) Carolina Hurricanes Line 3: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast

These lines are my top projected on the slate. For optimal lineups, I don’t recommend stacking the full three or five skaters on each line; instead, pair them in twos and threes with my top defenders and pivots below.

Florida/Carolina is my highest projected game on the slate, both in terms of expected goals and potential fantasy points. Florida leads the league in shots per game and is sixth in power play conversion rate at 26.5%. Carolina’s power play ranks fourth in the league, and they are fifth in total high-danger scoring chances in 5v5 situations. Sebastian Aho and Vincent Trocheck join Svechnikov and Staal on Carolina’s first power play unit, so you can get creative with correlations. One of Florida’s defensemen, Aaron Ekblad or Keith Yandle, should find their way into your lineups with or without a Florida stack.

The firepower on Boston’s top line is hard to ignore on a six-game slate, even though the Devils rank eighth in my overall defensive rankings. (The Devils did just get lit up for 12 goals in two games against the Rangers.) The combination of Marchand, Bergeron and Pastrnak in 5v5 situations has produced a 63.86 CF%, a 6.3 xGF, and 8 high-danger goals in 31 chances this year (only 14 games together). If Aaron Dell starts in goal for the Devils (.877 SV% and 3.72 GAA), this top Boston line will get a nice boost in my projections and will likely sway me (and the field) to roster them in both cash and tournaments. If you are looking to get exposure to Boston without the price tag, Nick Ritchie and Matt Grzelcyk join the big three on the power play.

I am fading Pittsburgh… again. Crosby, Guentzel and Rust do project as the third-highest line on this slate, but I like other spots at cheaper price tags. The Rangers are nothing special defensively but do have a top 10 penalty kill. Don’t get me wrong, Crosby and company will get their points, but at $19,700 on DK for all three, you will have a tough time getting Boston and Panthers exposure. I don’t mind using any of these three, or Evgeni Malkin, as a one off if you have the salary or pairing one of them with Kris Letang.

Low-ownership pivots

Calgary Flames PP1: Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan
New York Rangers Line 1/PP1: Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Buchnevich, Adam Fox
Dallas Stars PP1: John Klingberg, Joe Pavelski, Jamie Benn
(Value) Ottawa Senators Line 3: Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Drake Batherson

After Florida and Carolina, the next best spot for a blowup game is Ottawa at Calgary. Both teams rank in the top 10 of total high-danger chances (5v5). I give the edge to Calgary with Ottawa ranking 30th out of 31 teams in my defensive rankings and 26th in penalty kill percentage. You can get exposure to both of Calgary's top lines by targeting their first power play unit. Ottawa’s third line brings a lot of value on this slate and Stutzle and Batherson join Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot on their top power play line.

The New York Rangers have scored 12 goals in their past two games (both against the Devils) and are looking to keep the momentum going. Without Panarain in the lineup, they don’t have a superstar anchor which usually keeps their overall ownership down. I like the combo of Zibanejad, Buchnevich and Fox to light the lamp tonight against the struggling Penguins defense.

The Dallas/Nashville game looks like it could be a low-scoring affair on paper, but the power play combo of Pavelski, Benn and Klinberg will have a massive edge if they can get a few chances with a man advantage. Nashville is third worst in penalty killing this season and their netminders have been really struggling. I like Dallas Line 1 and PP1 as low owned stacks with massive upside.