Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
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New York Yankees @ Houston Astros
Justin Verlander Over 5.5 K’s -132 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Yankees +158 @ Astros -188 Total 7 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
We’re down to MLB’s final four teams, as the Yankees get set to take on the Astros in the American League Championship Series for the third time in the last six years. The American League’s Cy Young favorite Justin Verlander takes the ball for the ‘Stros in Game 1 of a best-of-seven series. While I do like the Astros to win Wednesday, -188 is a little too steep for me. That said, I identified an edge in the strikeout market. We’re backing Justin Verlander over 5.5 K’s at -132 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
After missing most of the last two seasons, it didn’t take long for Verlander to reclaim his spot as the Astros ace and one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. The 39-year-old posted a 27.8% K%, which ranked 10th in the majors. Verlander’s 11.6% swinging-strike percentage ranked 19th in the majors, just ahead of Padres ace Yu Darvish.
The Yankees finished the season averaging 4.95 runs a game, second in the majors behind only the Dodgers. The Bronx Bombers can certainly put some runs up, but they were also susceptible to the strikeout. Since August, the Yankees have posted the sixth highest strikeout percentage in MLB against right-handed pitching at 24.4%. In a much smaller sample this postseason, New York has stuck out over 30% overall in October.
I’m projecting Verlander to go pitch six innings and strike out the six batters we need to cash our K prop. I bet over 5.5 punchouts Wednesday morning at -132, I wouldn’t play this much higher than -155. My apologies for posting this late but there are a couple shops still hanging a playable number. Use FTN’s Prop Shop to grab the best number available.
Bet: Justin Verlander Over 5.5 K’s -132
