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Chris Meaney
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Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins +1.5 -118 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
All 12 playoff teams are set for the 2022 postseason, but the NL East crown is still up in the air. The Atlanta Braves took the lead when they swept the Mets last week, and all they need is one more victory to win the division.
Miami will not go out lightly. This team beat the Braves 4-0 Monday, and they hope they can play spoiler again. Miami has gone 58-42 against the run line as an underdog this season, and the Marlins are on a three-game winning streak. They eliminated the Brewers from the playoffs, and now they can make the NL East come down to the season’s final game.
Jake Odorizzi will take the mound in Miami for this must-win matchup for Atlanta. In 21 starts this season, Odorizzi is 5-6 with a 4.53 ERA, a 4.32 FIP, and a 1.36 WHIP. This will be his second time facing the Marlins this season. In his last start against Miami, in Miami, Odorizzi allowed two runs on eight hits in eight innings in a no-decision.
On the road this season, Odorizzi has had it rough. He has a 4.86 ERA, a .281 batting average against, a .426 slugging percentage against, a 4.40 FIP and a 1.44 WHIP. Atlanta is 5-8 straight up in Odorizzi’s road starts this season.
Lefty Braxton Garrett will make the start for Miami at home. On the season, Garrett is 3-6 with a 3.56 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and a 3.57 FIP. In his last start against the Brewers, Garrett allowed two runs on six hits in four innings in a no-decision. In his only start against Atlanta, Garrett allowed no runs on five hits in six innings in a game the Braves went on to win.
At home this season, Garrett has been a much better pitcher. His era drops to a 2.48, he has a .225 batting average against, a .348 slugging percentage against, a 3.22 FIP and a 1.16 WHIP. Miami is 4-3 straight up in games Garrett has started at home.
The Braves lineup can carry this team, but I see Miami making life tough on Atlanta. The Braves did the hard part sweeping the Mets, but now all the pressure is still on. Atlanta just needs to win Tuesday or Wednesday, but Miami will not make it easy for the Braves.
Bet: Miami +1.5 -118 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
