Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
A season after he was one of the NFL’s most prolific passers, Derek Carr is projected to be back among the league leaders in 2022. The Las Vegas Raiders’ quarterback has the fourth-highest passing yards total for the 2022 season.
Carr’s 2022 prop bet for passing yards is 4,500.5 at BetMGM. Only Justin Herbert, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes have higher passing totals. Carr’s over/under for touchdown passes is around 30 scores at various sportsbooks.
Carr set a career-high with 4,804 passing yards in the 2021 season, which ranked fifth in the entire league. His 23 touchdown passes and 14 interceptions weren’t as impressive, but they were good enough to get the Raiders back to the playoffs for just the second time since 2003.
After losing on Wild Card Weekend, the Raiders made the biggest non-quarterback trade of the offseason by acquiring Davante Adams. Adams gives the Raiders the kind of All-Pro wide receiver that they haven’t had since drafting Carr in 2014. Josh McDaniels enters his first season as the Las Vegas Raiders’ head coach.
The AFC West is expected to be the NFL’s most competitive division. Can Carr do his part to help the Raiders compete with three legitimate contenders?
Let’s take a look at the odds for Carr’s passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.
Derek Carr Prop Bets for 2022
Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.
How Many Passing Yards Will Derek Carr Have In 2022?
Under 4,500.5 Yards (-115, BetMGM)
BetMGM offers significant value on the under for Carr’s passing total. While FanDuel Sportsbook has set Carr’s prop at 4,350.5 yards with -112 odds, you can bet Carr to throw for 4,500 yards or fewer at a slightly higher price. Carr never came close to approaching the 4,500-yard mark before his career-year in 2021, and there were signs that last season will be an outlier on the quarterback’s resume.
Maybe McDaniels will put Carr in an even better position to succeed, but the veteran was playing his best football up until Jon Gruden resigned. In the first seven games last season, Carr had 12 touchdowns passes, five interceptions and an average of 324.1 yards per game for a 5,510-yard pace for a 17-game season. In the final 10 games without Gruden, Carr was down to 253.5 yards per game (a 4,309-yard pace) with 11 touchdowns and nine picks. Carr also played in four overtime games, during which he racked up more than 200 passing yards.
Carr was an early 2021 MVP candidate before coming back down to earth. The addition of Adams will certainly help Carr and the Raiders’ offense. It isn’t enough that Carr should be expected to throw for as many yards as the likes of Brady and Mahomes.
How Many Touchdown Passes Will Derek Carr Throw In 2022?
Under 29.5 TDs (+100, DraftKings Sportsbook)
You can bet Carr to throw for under 30.5 touchdowns at other sportsbooks, but taking him to finish with 29 scores or fewer at even odds is the play with the most value. In order to go over his prop for touchdown passes, Carr would have to perform well above his standard NFL season.
Carr has only thrown for more than 28 touchdowns once, and it happened seven years ago with a 32-touchdown season in 2015. Carr is averaging 24.1 touchdowns per season in his eight-year career. He’s failed to total 24 touchdown passes in four of the last five seasons. Carr has thrown a touchdown on 4.3% of his career attempts.
Over the last three seasons, every quarterback who has thrown at least 30 touchdown passes has a higher career touchdown percentage than Carr. Josh Jacobs should get plenty of chances to score near the goal line, putting a ceiling on Carr’s final touchdown total. The running back has averaged more than nine touchdowns per season since the Raiders drafted him in 2019, and he scored on seven of his 12 carries inside the 5-yard line in 2021.
How to Bet Derek Carr Props
Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.
Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.
Derek Carr’s regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 4,500.5 yards. The over and the under both have -115 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.
A winning $115 bet on Carr to throw under 4,500.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $215 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $115 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Carr’s under for passing yards would come with a $86.96 profit
Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.
