Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The strategic alliance begins to take shape this week between the PGA and DP World Tours, as there’s coverage in Scotland for a co-sanctioned playing of the Scottish Open. Historically a DP World Tour event, the new partnership means this event is giving out points for both Tours and will have an extremely strong field as golfers head over to Europe to prepare for The Open next week. The event will take place at the Renaissance Club, with this being the fourth time the event has been held here (since 2019). All three previous tournaments needed a playoff to determine a victor, so perhaps we’re in line for another exciting finish.
The Course – Renaissance Club
- Par 71 – 7,293 yards
- Driving Distance – 290 yards
- Driving Accuracy – 54.9%
- Greens in Regulation – 70.4%
Key Course Takeaways
*I do not have shot by shot analysis of DP World Tour events, so slightly less to breakdown*
- The course is not a pure links, which seems to be the biggest knock on it, considering the region it’s in.
- From what I’ve watched and read, I would call it almost a hybrid links – greens are not as flat as many links courses, trees are present in parts of the course, not all out-and-in routing.
- Three holes are on the coast, although in windy conditions, most of the course will be affected.
- In the first three years of the tournament, the course has not been overpowered by distance or accuracy – golfers need to avoid just being too wild and finding the deep fescue.
- Irons and putting showed the most signal to results over the three-year sample.
- This field will be filled with more PGA members/Americans which will skew results, but the last three years, European flavor had a strong presence on the leaderboard even with PGA talent coming over to play the event.
- I will be leaning heaviest on overall talent, preferred skill set of approach over driving, and putting over scrambling/ARG.
- High GIR% should lead to less of an importance of ARG as it pertains to gaining strokes on the field to win – unless the wind picks up, which will change this and force more scrambling to come into play.
Scottish Open Outright Selections
Last week, I was only on large underdogs and played a reverse card for the Scottish Open. I’m not one to force wagers, and while there are of course golfers down the board I think can compete or win this event, the offerings were not quite enticing enough to warrant a wager. As more markets come out, this is where we can hopefully take advantage of those golfers. But for outrights this week, there were only the three near the top who stuck out.
You can only have so many favorites in one field without some of them getting bumped into the mid-to-high 20s, and this week it appears Patrick Cantlay (25/1) was the least fancied at the open. The golfers priced ahead of him are deserving, except perhaps Morikawa, but in some places, Cantlay is priced ahead of him. It feels as if Cantlay has had a “blah” season, probably due to his lackluster performances at The Masters and PGA Championship on top of not having a win outside of the Zurich team event. His play has been quite steady and elite, despite the lack of winning going on, and maybe a change of scenery will be good. His OTT game should be plenty good enough to keep him out of a lot of trouble. The question will be, what irons will show up? It’s been the least consistent part of his game this year and the part of his game that has most often held him back. It’s irritating to watch him on the greens, but he’s a good putter, so it’s imperative his irons are putting him in positions to capitalize. As I mentioned, the greens are not hard to find here, but they are undulating, so finding them more often than not and avoiding having to scramble is a must if he wants to win.
Sam Burns (31/1) was the next golfer who showed some value to my number, and Burns has played this event before, finishing in 16th. I believe his baseline skill alone is good enough to bet this number, then you add in the fact his strongest skills are approach and putting and it made him a nice bet. He’s not the most consistent guy in the field, and the volatility he shows is good for winning as much as it causes missed-cut streaks like we saw in the winter. His worst events are when his irons don’t show up, which is also correlated to poor performances on the green. Burns putting stats are great, however. Perhaps if the irons aren’t clicking and giving him good looks, the lag putting isn’t the best? That’s a theory I haven’t looked into and quite frankly I find won’t play much of a factor in capping him to win a tournament. I’m simply typing out thoughts as they come that may be more helpful for capping positional wagers. As for winning a tournament, if he’s not hitting greens here, it likely won’t matter how his lag putting is, but his overall talent and skill set should suit Renaissance Club, and I think we’re getting a discount.
Sometimes, despite making adjustments for how I believe a course will play, value still appears on golfers who may not seem to be a perfect fit. Hideki Matsuyama (34/1) is more than capable of winning this event, but as we know, his putting is a consistent problem. He has struggled before when events are held at “easier” courses, mainly due to not being able to find enough putts. That could be an issue here, although we’ve seen him putt well enough from time to time, so there is some hope. The forecast looks rather docile at the moment (on July 4), but if the winds pick up that will play more into his favor. Strong irons will be even more of a premium, with a shift towards ARG as more greens are missed, and Matsuyama is strong in that department as well. Again, sometimes despite the profile, the number is too high to pass up, and that is what I’m seeing with Hideki at 34 when I made him closer to 22/1.
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