Why Kansas Will Win March Madness

When filling out your 2022 NCAA Tournament bracket, selecting a No. 1 seed to win the national championship is a pretty safe pick. Four straight No. 1 seeds have won college basketball’s ultimate prize. Of the four teams that meet that description, Kansas might be the best bet to win March Madness.

Kansas is in the championship conversation just about every year. The Jayhawks have earned a record 32 straight NCAA Tournament appearances. Sitting atop the Midwest region, Kansas is a No. 1 seed for the ninth time in 15 years. During that span, though, only the 2008 season ended in a March Madness title.

After 14 years, that championship drought might be coming to an end. The Big 12 champions face No. 16 Texas Southern Thursday in their first-round matchup in what could be the first of six straight wins.

The Jayhawks are 21.5-point favorites to advance to the second round. Make sure to check out the FTNBets Bracket Challenge for a chance to win up to $1,000.

Here are the latest odds for Kansas at the start of the 2022 NCAA Tournament (per BetMGM) and three reasons why they’ll win college basketball’s championship at the end of March Madness. 

Reason No. 1: Ochai Agbaji

With Agbaji in the lineup, Kansas might have the best player on the court in every game during their 2022 March Madness run. That fact alone gives the Jayhawks a strong chance to advance in each round. It will undoubtedly be the case in the first weekend. Even if the Jayhawks take on Iowa’s Keegan Murray or Auburn’s Jabari Smith before the Final Four, Agbaji can go toe-to-toe with either player.

Agbaji is averaging 19.7 points and 5.1 rebounds per game. Shooting 47.7% from the field and making 40.5% of his 6.9 threes per game, Agbaji is the most efficient high-scoring guard from a major conference. Agbaji is a model of consistency with just one single-digit scoring game all season.

Unlike most of the other star players in the tournament, Agbaji is a senior with multiple years of March Madness experience. He even played 45 minutes as a freshman in the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Having a reliable scorer who won’t shrink in big moments is an enormous advantage. 

Baylor’s Jared Butler scored 39 points on 23 field-goal attempts to win last year’s Final Four Most Outstanding Player award. Look for Agbaji to have a similar, efficient performance at the culmination of a Kansas championship run.

Reason No. 2: Final Four Path

Of the four No. 1 seeds, Kansas has the easiest path to the Final Four. That’s not to say that the Jayhawks won’t be challenged in the Midwest, but their portion of the bracket features the weakest group of No. 2-4 seeds.

A threat to win the national title, No. 2 Auburn might also be primed for an upset. The Tigers are just 5-4 in their last nine games, and there are indications that they peaked in January. No. 3 Wisconsin is ranked lower in the AP Top 25 Poll than any other team on the three-line in March Madness. The Badgers have lost back-to-back games to Nebraska and Michigan State. Advanced metrics suggest that No. 4 Providence is the luckiest team in college basketball. The Friars have worse national championship odds than 40% of the field.

There isn’t much threat of Kansas being upset in the first weekend. All season long, the Jayhawks have taken care of business against teams that they should easily beat. Five of Kansas’ six losses have come against NCAA Tournament teams. The only outlier was a one-point loss all the way back in November against Dayton, a bubble team that barely missed the tournament. 

Early-tournament upsets have been all-too common under coach Bill Self. That shouldn’t be a worry this time around.

Reason No. 3: Peaking in March

Don’t underrate health as a major factor in determining the national champion. No. 1 Baylor is without leading-scorer LJ Cryer for at least the first two rounds, and starting point guard Kerr Kriisa of No. 1 Arizona missed the end of the Pac-12 Tournament with a sprained ankle. Part of the reason why Kansas played so well entering the tournament is because its roster is at full strength.

Remy Martin had 12 points, four rebounds and four assists in the Big 12 Championship Game. It was his best performance since being hampered by a knee injury for much of the season. The transfer averaged 19.1 points for Arizona State in each of the last two seasons. Martin could be the biggest X-factor in the tournament if he picks up where he left off for the Jayhawks.

Forward Jalen Wilson is averaging 12.5 points and 7.0 rebounds in the last six games. Second leading scorer Christian Braun has shot better than 50% from the field. Kansas has failed to score 70 points just once in its last 14 games.

Kansas is on a five-game winning streak with four victories against tournament teams. The Jayhawks followed up claiming a share of the Big 12 regular-season title by winning the tournament championship. Kansas has overcome every challenge it’s faced this season, and that trend should continue throughout the tournament.