College basketball odds and betting picks for Tuesday (3/1)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and March is finally here. With the conference and NCAA tournaments quickly approaching, we get some great matchups between the best teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bets for Tuesday’s slate.

Purdue vs. Wisconsin

(Line: Purdue -2.5, DraftKings Sportsbook)

In the first matchup between these Big Ten powerhouses, we saw the coming-out party for Johnny Davis as he exploded for 37 points resulting in a rare home loss for Purdue in Mackey Arena. We know Purdue’s 107^th-ranked defense, especially on the perimeter, has been an issue all season, but I do expect Matt Painter to be much more prepared to attempt to slow down Davis in this one. Outside of Davis, Wisconsin’s swing offense (that doesn’t use a ton of pick and roll) did not find much success against the Purdue defense as Mason Gillis shut down Tyler Wahl inside, and the mobile Badger bigs weren’t able to take advantage of Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. On the defensive side, Wisconsin grades out as one of the worst post defensive teams in the conference and we saw Edey take advantage in the first matchup dropping 24 points. Purdue obviously has the advantage inside but the key to this game will be the Jaden Ivey/Johnny Davis matchup. Shot quality shows that shooting regression is due for Wisconsin and just coming off a loss with the Big Ten title on the line, I expect to see the Boilermakers extremely motivated for this rematch. 

The Pick: Purdue -2.5

Arizona vs. USC

(Total: 150, DraftKings Sportbook)

We get a rare Pac-12 showdown with two top-25 teams. The initial matchup between these two was much closer than the final score indicated. Where both USC and Arizona’s strengths lie are with their length in the frontcourt, as both grade out as the top two 2-point percentage defenses in the entire country. Anytime either of these teams steps on the court, you know it will be extremely hard to get any offense in the paint and expect the game to be dominated by the back courts and jump shooting. USC’s back court certainly isn’t their strength as most of their offensive production comes at the rim (310^th nationally at 3pt FGA offense). While Arizona has a much better (yet inconsistent) back court, they supplement their offensive production through a lethal transition attack. Similar to the first matchup, I expect USC’s main focus to be limiting transition and utilizing their zone defense to control pace. The first matchup saw only 64 possessions which is a season low for Arizona. Shot Quality shows that shooting regression is due for USC and coming off the road loss Arizona may be hitting a bump in their offensive continuity. I think this one ends up being more of a grind then a track meet. 

The Pick: Under 150