College basketball odds and betting picks for Tuesday (2/1)

The 2021-22 college basketball season is in full swing, and conference play provides matchups between the top teams in the country. Below is my analysis and favorite bet for Tuesday’s slate.

UNC vs. Louisville

(Line: UNC -3, DraftKings Sportsbook)

What a disappointing season it has been for the Louisville basketball program after attempting to right the ship in the post-Pitino era and get Louisville back to its blue-blood status. More turmoil hit the program this year with the latest being the firing of head coach Chris Mack and the suspension of their best player, Malik Williams. After some lofty preseason expectations, the Cardinals have been in shambles pretty much the entire year and it has only gotten worse, losers of six of their last seven games. In steps North Carolina, who have had their own inconsistencies on the defensive end of the floor but have been playing solid basketball of late, winners of three straight. This line is way too short given the current state of the Louisville program, missing their head coach and best player and I will be jumping on the Tar Heel side who have the ability to go on numerous runs due to their offensive fire power.

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The on/off splits, especially defensively, without Malik Williams in the lineup are alarming for Louisville and they are going up against one of the elite big men in the entire country, Armando Bacot. JuCo transfer Sydney Curry has shown some flashes but will be severely undersized against Bacot. Where UNC can be exploited is in their perimeter defense but Louisville does not have the guard play or playmakers to attack that weakness. Unless Louisville can somehow get incredibly hot from three (42.2% of their FGA are from behind the arch) I see the Tar Heels going on a few unanswered runs and running away with this game. College basketball is a game where team chemistry and togetherness are extremely important and it’s certainly not there for Louisville at the moment so I will continue to fade them until the market catches up.

The Pick: UNC -3