Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL regular season is nearing its end. We have just two weeks remaining for teams to solidify those playoff berths. COVID-19 was a key factor in the outcome of multiple Week 16 NFL games and will likely be an issue we need to monitor throughout the end of the season as well.
Despite that hurdle, the NFL remains the league of parity. With two weeks remaining in the season, we still have half the divisions up for grabs, with only the Packers, Cowboys, Bucs and Chiefs already claiming crowns. The NFC playoff picture has five teams qualified already, with the Eagles and 49ers knocking on the door and the Saints, Vikings and Falcons one game back with two to go. The only AFC team to lock up a playoff spot is the Chiefs. The entire AFC North is separated by just two games from first to last with every team between 9-6 and 7-8. The top three teams in the AFC East are either 9-6 or 8-7, meaning anyone can still win that division or wind up missing the playoffs. The Titans currently are one game up on the Colts with both currently owning the inside track to make the playoffs if they win out or get help. While the Chiefs have clinched the West, every other team is 8-7 or 7-8, meaning all three of them are still alive as well.
At the very least, so many teams still having a chance means we should see some very competitive games in Weeks 17 and 18 this year. So let’s take a look at the trends and see if we can find some tips to help us out.
Against-the-Spread Results
We were waiting on two results last week when the article went live, and both favorites won and covered those games to break the 7-7 tie in Week 15. That gave favorites the 9-7 edge on the week to make the seasonal series 8-6-1 for blind betting on favorites with a slight profit. Favorites again ruled the day in Week 16, edging out another 9-7 victory against the underdogs and another one-unit (plus) profit for a blind bet on each one. Not only did favorites extend their lead on winning weeks, but they extended their profitability as wagering choices. The edge is very small. You would be up barely a few units after 240 bets through 16 weeks. While it is better to be on favorites than underdogs in 2021, the margin of victory and profitability of blindly betting them is basically too small to get excited about.
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Underdog Records
We had nine favorites win in Week 16. We had two other favorites win but fail to cover the spread (Green Bay and Atlanta). That leaves us five underdogs who managed to win their games outright. The Bills were a small dog, as were the Titans and Colts. Chicago was a decent price as they should not have been that big of an underdog. The Texans were the only real surprise. While those last two did carry some positive money, a blind one-unit bet on underdogs did not produce a big score this week. It did not even eke out a profit, although the loss was small thanks to the plus-money payouts on the Texans and Bears. For the season, we have had nine weeks where the underdogs have made a profit and now seven without one. That is two weeks in a row where this has been an unprofitable strategy, although betting dogs is still a profitable play for the season, up slightly under 10 total units.
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NFL Totals
We have gone over the numbers all season long here — betting overs has been a disaster in 2021. A blind bet on unders has produced a flat-bet profit as we have close to 54% winners and anything over 52.5% is profitable at -110 standard juice odds. Over have come in closer to 45% of the time, so blindly betting them in 2021 has been a money-burning endeavor. So this week was actually an outlier as we had the same number of overs and unders at 8 apiece. Normally we have seen more unders, so maybe the numbers are starting to balance out as books have adjusted some games downward due to covid issues holding some players back. We tend to overemphasize the impact on offenses, probably because of fantasy purposes. Defenses have had just as many players missing and that has led to a bit more scoring in some of these games over the last two weeks. Overs have performed better during this recent stretch. Despite the fact the seasonal numbers skew heavily in favor of blindly betting unders, the margin of error is shrinking, and the trend seems to be weakening down the stretch here. They are still the side that has come out far more often and blindly betting one unit on every under this year has produced a flat bet profit, but the more recent trend is negative and the profitability of blindly betting on them is becoming smaller.
