NBA Prop Bets – Model Picks (10/21)

What is going on everyone? Throughout the year I am going to have these articles posted live on FTNBets.com to break down some of my favorite prop bets of the night. My plan is to use my model to determine where the best edges are in comparison to the props markets. 

The number of picks I provide will vary each day, but my goal is to provide at least 2-3 picks that are backed by my model’s numbers and provide some explanation as to why I like the bet, or how the model got to its conclusion. Let’s get into the picks! 

Jordan Poole o16.5 Points (-140, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Projection: 20.31 points

Last game, Jordan Poole took 18 shots in 25 minutes, and it appears he is solidifying himself as the secondary scorer in this Warriors offense at the time being. My model has him for over 20 points tonight, so there is a nice edge with the model projection, and if his sheer volume continues it will be tough for him to not hit this over. He did hurt his ankle a bit last game that led to him playing just 25 minutes rather than the 28-30 projected, but he came back in the game and appears good to go tonight. 

Bam Adebayo o4.5 assists (-115, BetMGM)

Projection: 6.42 assists 

Bam Adebayo is one of, if not the best facilitators in this Miami offense. He averaged over 5 assists per game last year, so it is a bit strange to see this kind of line. The model likes him for nearly 7 assists, so there is an edge on this number. 

Terance Mann o1.5 assists (+140, Caesars) and o4.5 rebounds (+115, DraftKings SportsBook)

Projection: 2.52 assists, 6.29 rebounds

The model is pretty high on Terance Mann, and I have him playing 28 minutes, which leads him to some solid projections. Last year Mann averaged north of 3 assists and nearly 7 rebounds per 36 minutes. So while he most likely won’t get 36 minutes, if he is in that 26-30 range I really like these bets.