MLB Best Bets for Wednesday (8/25)

After a short hiatus away from the game, I’ve returned to the MLB Best Bets column. Last time out, Detroit and Toronto failed to hit the over on nine runs despite going into extra innings and having more time do so. It was frustrating that Tyler Alexander (L) finally decided to learn how to pitch in the majors in this specific game, but hey, that’s baseball, and you need to turn the page to a new day.

We have a handful of afternoon matchups Wednesday mixed in with our normal bunch of night games, so we’re in for a full day of MLB betting. I’m eyeing another total on this slate so let’s jump right into the day’s best bet.

Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox

Minnesota +143 Caesars Sportsbook, Boston -154 Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM

Minnesota and Boston will bump heads again Wednesday for Game 2 of their three-game series. Boston won a slugfest in Game 1 by a score of 11-9 and is looking to secure a series win by taking Game 2. Veteran Nick Pivetta (R) will take the mound for Boston as Minnesota counters with rookie Bailey Ober (R).

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Despite having the worst record in the AL Central and the third-worst overall in the American League, Minnesota’s bats have been quietly productive throughout the year. On the season, they’re a top-10 offense overall with a .321 wOBA and 103 wRC+ to go along with the sixth-lowest .284 BABIP, suggesting that bad luck has hindered them from performing even better. They’ve hit very well on the road with top-eight marks in both wOBA and wRC+ and they’ve lit up righties on the year (.324 wOBA and 105 wRC+) again with one of the lowest BABIPs in the league (eighth lowest, .281). They’ve proven to be able to get on base without the luxury of hits as explained by their top-10 BB% (9.3%) and the seventh-best BB/K ratio (0.41), cementing themselves in the top half of the league in terms of OBP vs right-handed pitchers. Minnesota can score runs early and have been a top-five team to the first-five-inning total on the year while being the second-best first-five-inning over team on the road (59%). Minnesota may be a bad team overall, but their offense is doing everything they can to keep them relevant.

Bailey Ober (R) is coming into this game with fairly mundane stats through his first 14 starts of his career. He has a 4.38 ERA so far, but a slightly higher 4.79 FIP on the year. On the road, he’s been touched up for a .343 wOBA against resulting in a 4.64 FIP, a mark actually lower than his cumulative FIP but still nothing to brag about. Ober got his career off to a decent start, but in his last 10 games he has an ERA of 4.63 and a FIP north of 5.00 sitting at 5.25. Only his BB% (6%) sits in the top half of major league pitching, while his xwOBA (.329), xERA (4.69), xBA (.256), xSLG (.439), and hard hit rate (43%) all fall within the bottom-25% of major league pitchers. He’s gotten off to decent starts in games with a 4.00 FIP the first time through the opposing lineup, but the third through fifth innings could be tough for him as his FIP balloons up to 6.01 when the opposition gets to see him for a second time. Granted, he doesn’t give out a ton of free passes, but letting up consistent hard contact and not being able to miss barrels could prove costly facing a powerful offense in Boston.

Boston has seen its Cinderella story season step on the brakes a little over the past few weeks. After being one of the hottest teams in baseball for much of the year and having the best record in the American League while leading the AL East, the Red Sox now find themselves in third place in the division holding just a two-game lead on Oakland for the second Wild Card spot. Their bats quieted down for a bit but have since started to pick things back up again. They have similar numbers to Minnesota overall, with top-10 marks in both wOBA (.330) and wRC+ (106) to go along with the second-highest wOBA at home (.346, second only to Colorado naturally) and the seventh-ranked 112 wRC+ mark. They’ve consistently been a top-10 offense over the last 30, 14 and seven days, putting up a league-leading .380 wOBA and 140 wRC+ over the last 14. Even over the last seven days they’ve remained an elite offense, despite having a ridiculously low .230 BABIP, a number that’s sure to creep back up to the more normal .300 range. Over this recent hot stretch, Boston has the highest BB% (11.9%), the lowest K% (16.8%), and the best ISO (.247) and SLG (.526) marks of all 30 teams. Maybe they feel the pressure of possibly dropping out of a playoff spot, but whatever it is Boston’s offense is firing on all cylinders as of late.

Nick Pivetta (R), at least to me, has actually been quite a pleasant surprise for Boston this year. He’s not shattering any records, but after putting up a 5.60 ERA and 5.50 FIP combined in 2019-2020, he’s settled in nicely as a back of the rotation starter with a 4.43 ERA and 4.21 FIP so far through 24 starts. Unfortunately for Pivetta, he’s done most of his dealing on the road as he allows a .352 wOBA against (.273 on the road) with a 5.15 FIP (3.36 road FIP) at Fenway Park. Since shutting out Oakland through seven innings on the Fourth of July, Pivetta has made seven starts putting up a 5.35 ERA and a 4.51 FIP with the slightest bit of good luck in the BABIP department (.284). His barrel rate is merely average compared to the rest of the league and his hard hit rate and average exit velocity both rank firmly in the bottom-half of pitchers. Pivetta may be a better pitcher than he has been over the last two seasons, but even this year he’s still shown the ability to allow 4-plus runs within the first five innings individually on six separate occasions.

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The pick

I’m leaning toward early runs in this matchup. We have two of the hottest teams in the MLB, a solid road offense, and one of the best offenses in the league, not to mention both offenses have been top-10 over the last 30, 14 and seven days. Neither starter here has shutdown stuff and both bullpens were on the hook for 4-plus innings Tuesday. These two teams were able to put up 12 runs in the first five innings yesterday and I have a feeling they might have saved a few more for Wednesday. F5 o6 +105 BetMGM.

Column record: 42-40, +9.65u