The One Hitter: MLB game-by-game betting breakdown (8/19)

Each day, we are going to try and give you a quick preview of today’s main slate and any interesting betting angles that we spot. Take a look.

All betting lines and information are from the FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds betting breakdown

Marlins (+190), Reds (-230)
Total: 8.5 runs
Zach Thompson (R) vs. Luis Castillo (R)

Three things to know

• The Reds are as hot as an August Midwest summer, scorching the ball to a .382 wOBA and .251 ISO in the last week.
• The Marlins stink – they have a .312 wOBA and a 24.9% whiff rate in the last month.
• After seemingly turning things around, Luis Castillo has been tagged for a 9.90 ERA in the last month.

Best bets: I think this Reds team is going to make things interesting down the stretch. Bet on them in a big way.

Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees betting breakdown

Twins (+220), Yankees (-270)
Total: 10.5 runs
John Gant (R) vs. Jameson Taillon (R)

Three things to know

• The Yankees need to wake up at the plate – their .163 ISO and 24.6% whiff rate is ugly.
• John Gant, traded in the J.A. Happ deal, has to control the free passes – a 15.2% walk rate is pretty ugly.
• Jameson Taillon has a 1.80 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his last 30 innings.

Best bets: This feels like another lopsided affair. Take a look at the OVER and some Yankee homer props.

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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals betting breakdown

Brewers (-210), Cardinals (+176)
Total: 8.0 runs
Brandon Woodruff (R) vs. Jon Lester (L)

Three things to know

• Milwaukee has been improving at the plate recently – their strikeout rate in the last month is under 20%.
• The mega arms just keep rolling out for the Brewers – this time, it’s Brandon Woodruff going for the sweep.
• The Cardinals have a 23.4% strikeout rate and a .180 ISO in the last month.

Best bets: I think you stack a same-game parlay here – Jon Lester is terrible, and Woodruff is outstanding.

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers betting breakdown

Mets (+150), Dodgers (-178)
Total: 9.5 runs
Taijuan Walker (R) vs. Evan Phillips (R)

Three things to know

• The Dodgers keep rolling – they’ve posted a .186 ISO and .326 wOBA mark over that same time frame.
• This Mets drop off has been FAST – they are now in third place of the NL East.
• Does Taijuan Walker need a break? He’s recorded a 6.26 ERA in the last month.

Best bets: The Mets are falling, and hard. Take the Dodgers in a F3/F5 bet.

(Get all my MLB betting picks here)

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