MLB Best Bets for Friday (7/23)

A Friday edition of MLB Best Bets on a loaded 15-game slate, could there be anything better? I’ll take a dive into today’s games and highlight the most attractive angles on the betting board. With the work week coming to an end, let’s look to be profitable and kick off the weekend in the green.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Mets

Toronto and New York will kick off a three-game interleague series Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Toronto southpaw Steven Matz will get the start against his former squad, while New York will send rookie Tylor Megill to the mound.

Toronto’s offense has been one of the most intimidating offenses to begin the season, but the Blue Jays’ splits suggest they are much more of a force at home than on the road. They have the league’s best .357 wOBA and second-ranked 123 wRC+ at home this season, but their .318 wOBA and 101 wRC+ on the road makes them merely an average offense away from Dunedin and Buffalo. Toronto scores over a run less on the road, averages a both-teams total of just 8.31 R/G, and is surprisingly 28-18-1 on the road to the under despite having such a high-impact offense. Opposing teams definitely don’t want to see this offense in Buffalo, but they are surprisingly manageable on the road.

Steven Matz is one of the few starting pitchers whose extreme home and road splits actually favor his road starts. That might be somewhat predictable since his two home fields have generated some of the higher scores in the league so far this year, but Matz has been hit hard at home allowing a .386 wOBA to opposing hitters while checking in with a 5.19 FIP. On the road, however, he’s held hitters to a mere .288 wOBA and a FIP just a hair over 3.00. His K% is 10% higher on the road than at home, BB% is over 4% lower on the road, while his BABIP sits at a very normal .299. Matz may be two different pitchers at home and on the road, but luckily for Toronto and Matz they’re playing this one in a different part of New York.

New York’s offense has been somewhat disappointing this year and are still fighting injuries with Francisco Lindor on the IL. They’ve been slightly below average both at home, with a .301 wOBA and 97 wRC+, and facing left-handers, .309 wOBA and 97 wRC+. Aside from Marlins Park in Miami, Citi Field has been the lowest scoring run environment in the major leagues so far this season. Unders have been hitting at a 67% clip this year at Citi Field with a record of 27-13-2 and a miniscule average game total of 6.05 R/G. With the wind blowing in, New York’s lack of success both at home and against lefties, and Citi Field being one of the toughest run-scoring environments in the league, I don’t foresee New York putting up a ton of runs in this one.

Tylor Megill only has five starts in his big-league career, but has shown a lot of success in his limited time. He hasn’t recorded a decision yet, but has thrown 24 innings allowing just a 2.63 ERA and a 3.71 FIP, impressive for a young rookie pitcher. His BABIP allowed is hovering right around .285 and with a HR/FB ratio of 12.5%, it appears good luck has no relation to his early career success. Megill’s K rate is 11% higher at Citi Field than on the road, allows a sub .290 wOBA to opposing hitters, and has been great at missing barrels with a 3.2% barrel rate. Toronto isn’t necessarily the lineup an opposing pitcher wants to face, but I’m looking for Megill to have another solid start in this one.

The pick

All signs here point to a totals lean. Toronto, one of the best offenses in the league, is merely average on the road — their road unders are hitting at about a 61% clip, and Matz has been much better anywhere that’s not Dunedin or Buffalo. On the other side, Citi Field unders in general have hit at a 67% rate, Megill is off to a hot start and is unfamiliar to Toronto’s bats, and the wind will be blowing in. I’m looking for a low-scoring affair in this one and with two good bullpens I’m liking the first five and full game. Under 8.5 +100 & F5 under 4.5 +100.