Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Multiple times each week, FTN Bets’ resident college basketball junkie, Brad Evans, will attempt to posterize the ‘books with his favorite selections, whether sides, totals, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — that’s up to you.
2-leg alternative line parlay play: Iowa (ML), California (+15.5) (Tipico Sportsbook)
Odds: +126
Leg 1: Iowa (ML) at Indiana
Revenge is a dish best served cold. For the tailspinning Hawkeyes, plating bags of ice is unquestionably on their Super Bowl Sunday menu. Uncharacteristically frigid when it last squared off against Indiana, an 81-69 stumble in Iowa City, Fran McCaffrey’s club is determined to return the favor. For vengeance to be had, the Hawkeyes’ zone, once respectable but now repugnant, must tighten. Over their past three tilts, two which resulted in defeats, they surrendered an unacceptable 1.14 points per possession. Iowa still boasts an explosive offense. It ranks No. 2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. When firing on all cylinders, Luka Garza, Joe Weiskamp and CJ Frederick are quite the fearsome threesome. In the first matchup, Indiana drilled eight triples and committed only eight turnovers. If Armaan Franklin and Rob Phinisee splash buckets from outside and Trayce Jackson-Davis repeatedly pounds the paint, the Hoosiers could score the season sweep. Iowa, however, on the losing end in three of its last four, is desperate to get back on track. In what should be a tense battle from start-to-finish, expect the favorite to sneak a W in Bloomington. Keep in mind IU has dropped three consecutive games inside the Assembly Hall.
Leg 2: California (+15.5) at Stanford
Through the haze of tequila overconsumption, a caloric bomb cardiologists would highly recommend against and general post-Super Bowl lethargy, Cal/Stanford is the action all chasing degens have always wanted. Only three days ago, the Cardinal dug its talons into the Bears, skewering the conference rival 70-55. Cal’s chilly shooting from the floor (0.82 pts/poss) and self-inflicted mistakes (16 TOs) allowed the visiting squad to race away. However, Stanford, down three starters, remains woefully short-handed. Still, their defensive inflexibility (No. 2 in the Pac-12 in eFG% allowed) combined with Oscar da Silva and Jaiden Delaire’s superb finishing abilities around the basket have kept it above water in conference play. When it comes to overall atrociousness, Cal is on par with league doormat Washington, at least statistically. The Bears, more of the gummy variety, rank at or near the bottom in nine different offensive/defensive advanced analytics within Pac-12 action. Still, this is a gunning team. Over 43% of its shots come from the arc. If Matt Bradley, Makale Foreman and Ryan Betley can stroke a suitable percentage, they will tuck under the alt-line above.
Season record: 17-22
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