Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
If you are just starting to build a bankroll, the best way to do it is by taking advantage of the odds boost bonuses the online sportsbooks are offering. Most of these bonuses have a maximum bet amount that is usually only about $50-$100. These odds boosts are the best chance you have to tip the odds in your favor. If the odds are in your favor, you want to bet as much as you can in those situations. Therefore, you want to bet the maximum amount allowed on these bonuses in order to maximize your expected return.
Combining sign up bonuses with odds boost bets being offered gives you the best chance of winning and building your bankroll. With that in mind, here are some opportunities to exploit this weekend.
PointsBet
Tyreek Hill Odds Boost
PointsBet is offering a Hill odds boost on a touchdown reception of 25-plus yards. The bet should be lined at +130, but they have it boosted up to +170. At +130, this event is priced at a 43.5% chance of happening. If we made this bet 1,000 times, we should win it 435 or 43.5%. That means we still lose it 565 out of those 1,000 times. If we bet $1 on each of the 1,000 times, we would lose that $1 565 times for a return of -$565. We would win 435 times and our $1 would return $2.70 for a $1.70 profit each time we were right. $2.70 times 435 times we are right equals $1,174.50. We bet $1 each time, so $1000 total. We ended up with a profit of $174.50 by making this bet. Remember, it will still lose 56.5% of the time. The key point is we lose $1 when we are wrong and make $1.70 when we are right. That means we do not have to be right anywhere near as often in order to end up on top over the long run. In short, this is a bet you should make.
In-game bet credits
PointsBet is also offering a promotion for risk-free in game bets. They have a $25 max bet on college basketball and a $50 max bet on tennis and soccer. With these bets you should be looking to make the same in-game bet you would have made preflop as soon as the game starts. The odds will not move much if you get in right after the game or match starts, but because doing so also gets you the safety of a free bet voucher if you lose, it makes sense to wait and take advantage of that safety net. Our college basketball guys have a bigger edge earlier in the season so it’s a good time to take advantage of this bonus and leverage it with their CBB knowledge. Check them out in our BetTracker tool under CBB. Josh Gross is a profitable tennis bettor and you have Tristan Hoh and Albert Vartanian holding it down with soccer picks, so remember to wait until kickoff to tail their plays and get the protection of a free bet to go with it.
BetAmerica
One other interesting offer I saw is on BetAmerica for NFL spreads. A $50 spread bet gets you a $5 bonus for every touchdown in the game by either team. I think they do cap it at like $25. Assuming you do not pick a field-goal-heavy contest, it makes sense to put your first $50 down on any of these games you like on BetAmerica to also get that added bonus. The free bet will act as a hedge on your downside risk if you bet the wrong side and serve as an odds boost on the upside if the team you are backing does cover. You can even bet more than $50 if you want on any spread, but you need to bet at least $50 to trigger the bonus. If another book is offering a better number, the added protection of the TD bonus still makes it worth it to take the first $50 on any eligible game here and then shopping for the best line for the rest of your bet on our Odds Board that compares the numbers from all the books in each state.
