NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
It’s the offseason, which means it’s a good time to look at fun past games of NFL history. Today, let’s look at the 10 best DVOA ratings ever scored in games where the team lost anyway. These are generally very good, close games against teams that ranked very high in DVOA and therefore had strong opponent adjustments.
10) 2001 Week 1: St. Louis Rams 20, Philadelphia Eagles 17 (OT)
Eagles DVOA: 59.3%
Let’s kick off our list with the first week of the 2001 season. The Rams outgained the Eagles 364 yards to 334 yards in this game, but they also recovered all six fumbles — four by themselves and two by the Eagles. The Eagles went 3-for-3 on fourth-down conversions and came back from a 17-3 deficit in the fourth quarter with two long drives which ended with short touchdown passes to running back Cecil Martin. The Eagles also won the coin toss but they couldn’t get past their own 30. The Rams took the punt and marched downfield from their own 36 to the Eagles 8, winning on a 26-yard field goal. The Eagles had an efficient game here against the Rams team that would end the season No. 1 in DVOA.
9) 2007 Week 17: New England Patriots 38, New York Giants 35
Giants DVOA: 59.3%
You may remember that this game was broadcast on three different networks simultaneously because the country was so plugged in to whether the Patriots were going to finish a perfect regular season. Both teams were excellent on offense in this game, with the Patriots outgaining the Giants 390 yards to 316 but the Giants putting up the better offensive success rate, 50% to 47%. The Giants had the only turnover, an interception by Eli Manning. The lead went back and forth, but the Patriots finally took the lead for good with a 65-yard touchdown pass from Tom Brady to Randy Moss which broke both the passing and receiving touchdown records on the same play. The Giants made it 38-35 with 1:04 left but couldn’t recover the onside kick. This is one of two games on this list against the 2007 Patriots because the opponent adjustments for that team were immense.
8) 1998 Week 14: New York Jets 32, Seattle Seahawks 31
Seahawks DVOA: 61.1%
Yes, it’s the game where Vinny Testeverde was clearly stopped short of the goal line on a fourth-and-goal quarterback draw — but with no instant replay during the 1998 season, there was no way to challenge or overturn the incorrect call and the Jets took a 32-31 lead with 15 seconds left. The Jets outgained the Seahawks 488 to 377 yards but also ran over 40 more plays from scrimmage so the Seahawks actually had more yards per play, 8.0 to 5.7. A big reason for the discrepancy: Jon Kitna hit Joey Galloway for touchdowns of 70 and 57 yards earlier in the game. Another strong game for opponent adjustments, as the Jets finished the year third in DVOA.
7) 2017 Week 14: Pittsburgh Steelers 39, Baltimore Ravens 38
Ravens DVOA: 61.3%
Not every Ravens-Steelers prime-time game is a defensive struggle. The Steelers outgained the Ravens 545 to 413 total yards but the Ravens actually had slightly higher success rate and yards per play numbers. The Ravens were the team that blew the lead in this one. They had a 31-20 lead after three quarters but the Steelers scored four times in the final quarter while the Ravens just got one more touchdown. The Steelers finally won the thing on a Chris Boswell 46-yard field goal with 42 seconds left.
6) 2004 Week 15: Pittsburgh Steelers 33, New York Giants 30
Giants DVOA: 66.1%
Rookie quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning faced each other and while Manning outplayed Roethlisberger, he ended up going home with a loss. The Giants had a 59% success rate on offense, compared to 47% for the Steelers. The lead went back and forth and the Giants took a 30-26 lead with a Tiki Barber touchdown with 8:15 left, but the Steelers came down and got a Jerome Bettis plunge for a yard to take a 33-30 lead with 4:57 remaining. Overall, Manning had one pick and no sacks compared to two picks and three sacks for Roethlisberger. But Manning picked the worst time to throw his only interception of the game, getting picked off by Willie Williams on a deep attempt to Amani Toomer three plays after that Bettis touchdown. Bettis then ran out the clock and the Steelers won.
5) 1983 Week 16: Washington Redskins 31, New York Giants 22
Giants DVOA: 68.5%
In the final week of the 1983 regular season, the Giants just couldn’t get it into the end zone against the No. 1 DVOA Redskins. The Giants outgained the Redskins 385 yards to 283 and they had the higher success rate. They picked off Joe Theismann four times and sacked him six times, but the Giants chose to kick five field goals including field goals from 19 and 20 yards. The Giants had a 22-17 lead in the fourth quarter but Washington scored twice, on a Clint Didier 7-yard reception and then a John Riggins 2-yard run with a Jeff Rutledge sack-fumble when the Giants had the ball in between.
4) 2003 Week 11: Indianapolis Colts 38, New York Jets 31
Jets DVOA: 68.7%
A big reason why the Jets have such a high DVOA in this one is that the new version of DVOA I introduced last year does not include fake punts and field goals. And the Colts just happened to win this game on a fake field goal, a 21-yard run by punter Hunter Smith with 3:18 left in the third quarter. Somehow, this game had 69 points up through that play and then no points at all in the fourth quarter. The Jets averaged 9.85 yards per play in this game but had a lower success rate than the Colts and ran fewer than half as many plays from scrimmage. It was all big plays for the Jets: a 62-yard Chad Pennington touchdown pass to Jonathan Carter, a 48-yard Pennington touchdown pass to Santana Moss, and a 90-yard kick return touchdown from Carter.
3) 2007 Week 13: New England Patriots 27, Baltimore Ravens 24
Ravens DVOA: 70.0%
The Patriots barely escaped with their perfect record intact despite getting thoroughly outplayed by the Baltimore Ravens. This was the only game all season where the 2007 Patriots had a negative DVOA. Although the two teams had similar success rates on offense, the Ravens outgained the Patriots 6.3 yards per play to 5.0 yards per play and 376 total yards to 326. The Ravens had a 24-17 lead early in the fourth quarter but the Patriots got a field goal from Stephen Gostkowski and then a 73-yard drive that ended with a Tom Brady 8-yard touchdown pass to Jabar Gaffney. That drive nearly ended a couple of times. First, the Ravens stopped the Patriots on the Baltimore 30 on fourth-and-1 but after the stop, the referees whistled that Baltimore had called a timeout before the play. Later, there was a Brady incompletion on fourth-and-5 from the Baltimore 13 but Jamaine Winborne, who was something like the fifth-string Baltimore cornerback, was called for holding Randy Moss which gave the Patriots a first-and-goal. The Ravens almost won the game anyway when Kyle Boller hit Mark Clayton on the final play with a 52-yard Hail Mary that was caught three yards short of the goal line. There’s a good writeup on the game on Reddit of all places, find that here.
2) 1992 Week 11: San Francisco 49ers 21, New Orleans Saints 20
Saints DVOA: 79.7%
Bobby Hebert had a strong day with 301 passing yards and two touchdowns. The Saints didn’t turn the ball over once. They had 6.6 yards per play compared to 5.3 yards per play for the 49ers, but the 49ers ran more plays so the total yardage was in favor of San Francisco. The Saints took a 20-7 lead into the fourth quarter but Steve Young found Brent Jones in the end zone twice and the 49ers got a 21-20 win.
1) 2008 Super Bowl XLIII: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Arizona Cardinals 23
Cardinals DVOA: 82.8%
A crazy game where the Cardinals were far superior on a play-by-play basis and lost anyway. The Cardinals had 7.1 yards per play and a 56% success rate. The Steelers had 5.1 yards per play and a 47% success rate. Arizona did turn the ball over twice compared to just once for the Steelers. The Cardinals only managed 33 rushing yards on 12 carries but Kurt Warner threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns. It looked like the Cardinals would win when Warner hit Larry Fitzgerald for a 64-yard touchdown with 2:37 left but then Ben Roethlisberger found Santonio Holmes with his tippy-toes in bounds on the side of the end zone for a touchdown with 35 seconds left.
