Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The English Premier League (EPL) is back in action and FTN has you covered! For this showdown between Manchester United and Aston Villa, as well as all other soccer coverage, we’ll be offering a DFS catered approach to help pack your bankroll with profit.
Manchester United (-290) @ Aston Villa (+850)
3:15 p.m. ET Friday, July 9th
Goalkeeper Strategy
With United as such a hefty favorite, David de Gea ($7,600) will be very highly owned (35-45%). Just one Aston Villa goal spoils that, and odds of them scoring at least one goal is -145 (59%). There’s no reason at all to go over the field in my eyes. I’d limit my exposure to a quarter of my lineups and gun for Aston Villa scoring. Pepe Reina ($4,000), on the other hand, will be sub-15%. I see a scenario where United struggles to break through and Reina has a strong showing but still wouldn’t go much over double-digit exposure.
Match and Player Analysis
Starting with the favorites, United, a match like this in the SD format makes every United player viable, more or less. Things have to start with the revolutionary Portuguese midfielder Bruno Fernandes ($12,200), who has revitalized United as a club. He’s had involvement in a large chunk of the goals United scores, with six goals and five assists through nine starts. Obviously every player can be faded in showdown formats, as the optimal combination could end up not having Bruno, but I’d be remiss to tell you to go under the field on him, as both the floor and upside are lofty. Let's address Mason Greenwood ($9,400), the 18-year-old English wunderkid. He’s put on a clinic the last two matches, but his shot-to-goal ratio is unsustainable. I think he’s a strong fade in SD formats because of such. I’d rather focus my attention on Fernandes, Marcus Rashford ($10,800) and Anthony Martial ($10,000) in the United attack. Don’t get me wrong, Greenwood has scored some world-class goals of late, but I think he will revert to the mean sooner than later. At 40-50%, going largely underweight on him could set you up for a strong day. Pulling the strings in the midfield, Paul Pogba ($7,200) is undoubtedly too cheap and should be cycled in your builds.
Aston Villa have not won a Premier League match since January. They are -275 to be relegated, and a loss here won’t help their cause. So the morale will need to be high as they look to grind out a draw. I see this ending 2-1, with United going up early and Villa forcing numbers in the attack, leaving gaps for the world-class counter-attack of United. Nevertheless, the main targets here should be Jack Grealish ($8,600) and John McGinn ($5,000), who is too cheap, especially if Conor Hourihane does not start once again. Grealish’s floor is strong too, and if he finds the scoresheet, he’ll likely be in the optimal lineup.
- Most Exposed – Bruno Fernandes
- Cash Core – John McGinn
- GPP Core – Fading Mason Greenwood
Stack Ideas
- CPT Bruno Fernandes, Additional United Attacker, Paul Pogba – Captain-ing Fernandes with another United attacker will be extremely chalky. It’s also the most likely scenario of how the game turns out. Pogba, De Gea and Aaron Wan-Bissaka will be chalky too, alongside them in the build. To differentiate in tournaments, use cheap Aston Villa forwards or leave salary ($500-1500). This is the ideal cash build.
- CPT Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial, Jack Grealish, John McGinn – Early goals by Rashford and Martial force Villa to push forward in numbers. Fernandes doesn’t hit his ceiling this way. Martial and Rashford can be flipped in CPT.
- CPT Jack Grealish, Bruno Fernandes, Additional United Attacker – Grealish will be extremely low owned in the captain spot. If he manages to score, to couple his double digit floor, the leverage could be massive.
