Booms, Busts and Breakouts: Buffalo Bills

As the mercury rises and we inch closer to training camp opens, our resident fantasy football aficionados, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe, profile their favorite booms, busts and breakouts for every NFL team. Today’s topic: The Bills Mafia.

Booms

Stefon Diggs, WR

The jury is certainly out on Diggs after the veteran wideout was shipped to the Bills in the offseason. As the common narrative goes, Diggs landed in a run-heavy offense with an inaccurate quarterback. And that mindset has pushed him all the way down into the sixth round of fantasy drafts.

The thing is, Diggs didn’t need heavy volume to have success last season. He saw just 94 targets — 50 fewer than his 2018 total — and still managed to post a career-best in receiving yards (1,125) along with scoring six times. The big difference from 2018 was his increased aDOT, which rose over five yards. Diggs finished 2019 with the ninth-deepest aDOT among wideouts with at least 50 targets.

That deep aDOT is exactly why Diggs screams value at his current ADP. Sure, he isn’t likely to see many more targets than last year. In fact, I currently have him projected for 104. But in Buffalo, Diggs is pair up with a quarterback who loves to chuck the ball downfield. Last season, Josh Allen ranked fourth among quarterbacks in aDOT and he led the position in his rookie year. Sure, it isn’t always going to be pretty, but the Allen-to-Diggs connection has explosive fantasy potential. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Josh Allen, QB

If you read the window sticker attached to a passer who ranked outside the top-25 in every completion percentage category invented — adjusted, red-zone, deep-ball, under pressure, etc. — you would never, ever remotely consider inserting a key and igniting engine. He’s a lemon, preordained to drive your fantasy franchise off the nearest, steepest cliff. 

However, Allen, thanks to his zeal for reckless break-pocket abandon, is very much an exception to the rule. Adding a sure-handed Diggs to pair with John Brown further hammers home the point. If — bolded and italicized for effect — the passer can corral his control, his odds of finishing inside the position’s top-five are substantial. 

Diggs’ ability to terrorize defenses on short-to-intermediate routes should surge Allen past the 215-pass-yards-per-game mark. If that occurs, he could regain value lost and then some if rushing regression kicks in — presumably, it’s an uphill battle for him to replicate last fall’s nine end-zone plunges. In the end, 3,500-plus passing yards, 500 rushing yards and 30 total touchdowns (23 passing, 7 rushing) are attainable. If you choose a QB in the middle rounds, Allen should be the apple of your eye (QB7, 96.9 ADP). — Brad Evans

Busts

Devin Singletary, RB

This one hurts because it really looked like Singletary was set up for a breakout year. But that was before the draft. The Bills obviously had a different plan in mind, as they drafted Utah’s Zack Moss in the third round back in April.

In Moss, the Bills essentially have the replacement for Frank Gore in the offense. And therein lies the problem. Gore’s presence in the Buffalo backfield essentially blocked Singletary from a big role early in the season. The Bills did finally break the seal on Singletary, feeding him an average of 17.1 carries per game in Weeks 11-16. That sort of volume just isn’t feasible with Moss in house.

Currently, I’m projecting a 65:35 touch split between these two backs with Singletary getting the larger slice of the pie with 224 projected touches. That’s certainly a reasonable workload, but it isn’t enough to position Singletary as anything more than a back-end RB2. That’s currently in line with his ADP, though I have seen him taken inside the top-20 running backs in several mocks and best ball drafts. Taking him there is a reach that isn’t likely to provide a positive return on investment. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Stefon Diggs, WR

When it comes to the pass game, it’s not all puppy dogs, ice cream and blue-cheese drenched wings in Buffalo. Yes, Allen’s vertical contributions should rise, but it doesn’t guarantee the former Viking will continue to cleave the fantasy opposition, not when a quarterback with the accuracy of an intoxicated Christian Hackenberg is hurling misfires your general direction. 

Whether facing man, zone or press coverage last season, Diggs excelled. He posted noteworthy success rates in each category. But the downgrade from Kirk Cousins (QB4 in adjusted completion percentage in ‘19) to Allen (QB30) is unsettling. Point blank, it’s highly unlikely the receiver will crack the top 20 at receiver in catchable target percentage for the second straight year. 

When the sun sets on 2020 (As soon as possible, please), Diggs (WR25, 53.1) lands well outside the WR2 class in 12-team, 0.5 PPR formats. Expect final totals in the range of 65-70 receptions, 925-975 yards with 5-7 TDs. — Brad Evans

Breakouts

Zack Moss, RB

While Singletary is certainly the lead dog in the backfield, Moss is the player with more sleeper appeal given his late-round ADP. Sure, you’re only drafting him as essentially a handcuff, but he’s a flier worth taking.

Moss impressed at Utah with over 6.0 yards per attempt in each of his last two seasons. He also scored a healthy 29 total touchdowns over that span. Where Moss was especially effective was in his ability to make defenders miss and create yards after initial contact. He also flashed solid chops in the receiving game with 28 catches in 2019.

Let’s be clear that Moss isn’t a startable option in redraft leagues as long as Singletary is healthy. But if he misses time, Moss has the ability to step right into a three-down role, which is very appealing in the run-friendly Bills offense. — Jeff Ratcliffe

Zack Moss, RB

According to Draftniks, the rookie is an unwanted Medusa. Gaze at his 29th-percentile SPARQ score and other profile metrics, they warn, and you’ll turn to stone. Moss does possess some metamorphic characteristics. Last season with the Utah Utes, he rolled through the competition ranking RB8 in total yards after contact, RB2 in total missed tackles forced and No. 14 in carries of 15-plus yards. Stocky and powerfully built at 5-foot-9, 223 pounds, he showcases the elusiveness, contact balance, leg drive and authoritative finishing skill to wear defenses down. A classic grinder, he wins through attrition. 

No doubt, Singletary enters the season as the starter, but underestimating Moss is a mistake. Given his reliable hands, he’s a plus version of Frank Gore, who averaged 10.4 attempts per game last season and ranked No. 23 in total red-zone carries (26). Toss in Allen’s rushing proclivity, Buffalo’s above-average offensive line and a supportive defense and the youngster is a top-shelf bench back typically available in the double-digit rounds (RB46, 114.9 ADP). Roughly 700-plus combined yards and 4-6 TDs are achievable this season. — Brad Evans