NBA DFS Preview - First Look (3/2)

Wednesday’s NBA DFS slate is absolutely loaded. There are eight games, and stars such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic and Joel Embiid are all in action.

Let’s take an early look at the slate and see what stands out. Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for March 2 | NBA DFS First Look

Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -3, total: 219
Pace: CHA (2nd), CLE (26th)

Situations to monitor:

Darius Garland (back) is listed as questionable, while Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo remain out for Cleveland.
Gordon Hayward will remain sidelined for Charlotte.

Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic

IND -1, total: 231
Pace: IND (18th), ORL (10th)

Situations to monitor:

Cole Anthony (hip) is listed as probable for Orlando
Chris Duarte is listed as questionable for Indiana with a toe injury.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -10.5, total: 224.5
Pace: NYK (27th), PHI (28th)

Situations to monitor:

Quentin Grimes will be re-evaluated in about two weeks.

Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets

UTA -14, total: 229.5
Pace: UTA (19th), HOU (1st)

Situations to monitor:

Kevin Porter (ankle) did not play Tuesday and will be listed as questionable again Wednesday.

Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -4, total: 226.5
Pace: MIA (29th), MIL (8th)

Situations to monitor:

Kyle Lowry will remain out of the lineup due to personal reasons. Caleb Martin (Achilles) is listed as questionable.

Sacramento Kings @ New Orleans Pelicans

NOP -6, total: 235.5
Pace: SAC (7th), NOP (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

Richaun Holmes (back) is listed as questionable for Sacramento.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -14, total: 226
Pace: OKC (16th), DEN (21st)

Situations to monitor:

Josh Giddey will remain sidelined with a hip injury. Luguentz Dort, Kenrich Williams and Ty Jerome have also once again been ruled out.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -13, total: 228
Pace: POR (17th), PHX (9th)

Situations to monitor:

Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow will remain out for Portland.
Cameron Payne (wrist) hasn’t played since Jan. 22 but is listed as probable for Wednesday’s game.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Jarrett Allen vs. Charlotte Hornets

Per usual, the center position is absolutely loaded on Wednesday’s slate, but Allen still projects as a fantastic play. He has dominated this Charlotte defense this season, averaging 21.3 points, 14.0 rebounds and 45.5 fantasy points per game in three meetings against the Hornets. The matchup is so good, as Charlotte plays at the second-fastest pace in basketball, while no team in basketball is allowing more rebounds per game to opposing centers this season (17.67). The Hornets are also coughing up a league-leading 7.8 putback points per game, which certainly bodes well for Allen, who is averaging 2.7 points per game off putbacks, good for fifth in the NBA.

CJ McCollum vs. Sacramento Kings

McCollum has been fantastic since joining the Pelicans, averaging 28.0 points per game on nearly 53% from the field, while adding 5.6 assists and 5.9 rebounds per game in seven contests.. During that span, McCollum is sporting a 28.2% usage rate, while averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute. Both the minutes and shot volume have been tremendous for McCollum and while the price has come up, I still believe McCollum is in a great spot. Sacramento is a poor defense and are allowing the sixth-most points per game in transition this season (20.2), while also allowing the fourth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (55.0%). McCollum, meanwhile, is averaging a healthy 7.3 transition points per game since joining the Pelicans, which would be second in all of basketball over the course of a full season.

Jae Crowder vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Crowder is one of my top mid-range value plays of the slate, coming in at $5,100 on DraftKings. He continues to start and log strong minutes, especially in the absence of Chris Paul. Cameron Payne is listed as probable for the Suns but even if he somehow starts at point guard, I’d guess Crowder remains in the starting lineup. And interestingly enough, Crowder is averaging 0.98 fantasy points per minute with Paul off the floor, compared to 0.76 fantasy points per minute when CP3 is on the floor. The matchup, meanwhile, is favorable, as Portland is allowing the fifth-most points per game (30.4), fifth-most points per possession (1.05) and fourth-worst field goal percentage (40.4%) off spot-ups this season. Crowder, meanwhile, is sporting a 50.5% frequency rate off spot-ups, while averaging 5.0 points per game off the play type.

Note: This matchup is also great for Cameron Johnson, whose 6.1 spot-up points per game are good for the sixth-most in the NBA. He has entered the starting lineup in Paul’s absence.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Gabe Vincent vs. MIL — The price has obviously come up a bit but Vincent will start at point guard once again for Miami with Kyle Lowry out. He scored 29 fantasy points last game and in 20 starts this season, Vincent is averaging a solid 13.2 points, 2.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists per game