NBA DFS Preview - First Look (2/8)

After a few days in a row of modest NBA DFS slates, Tuesday presents a massive 10-game slate that features plenty of superstar players. With the NBA trade deadline just two days away, be sure to pay extra attention to news throughout the day.

Be sure to also check out the FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for February 8 | NBA DFS First Look

Phoenix Suns @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -1, total: 217.5
Pace: PHX (13th), PHI (26th)

Situations to monitor:

Shake Milton will remain sidelined while Matisse Thybulle is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury.

Indiana Pacers @ Atlanta Hawks

ATL -9.5, total: 226.5
Pace: IND (17th), ATL (16th)

Situations to monitor:

Myles Turner (foot) will remain sidelined for the Pacers. Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) is listed as questionable while Terry Taylor and Isaiah Jackson are also questionable to play.
John Collins (heel) is listed as probable for the Hawks.

Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets

BOS -.6,5 total: 216.5
Pace: BOS (22nd), BKN (8th)

Situations to monitor:

James Harden is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, because this game is in Brooklyn, Kyrie Irving will be out. LaMarcus Aldridge will remain out with an ankle injury.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -8, total: 227.5
Pace: LAC (12th), MEM (4th)

Situations to monitor:

Dillon Brooks (ankle) will remain sidelined for Memphis.

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans

NOP -8.5, total: 228
Pace: HOU (1st), NOP (20th)

Situations to monitor:

Eric Gordon (heel) was originally listed as doubtful to play but is now questionable.

Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -12.5, total: 213.5
Pace: DET (10th), DAL (27th)

Situations to monitor:

Cade Cunningham has missed the last three games with a hip injury. He is once again questionable for Tuesday’s contest.
For Dallas, Kristaps Porzingis will remain out of the lineup, while Maxi Kleber has also been ruled out.

New York Knicks @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -8, total: 219.5
Pace: NYK (30th), DEN (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

Kemba Walker rested Monday but could return to the lineup Tuesday. Quentin Grimes is also listed as questionable.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers

MIL -4.5, total: 231
Pace: MIL (9th), LAL (3rd)

Situations to monitor:

Per usual, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as probable for Los Angeles. Carmelo Anthony has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.
For Milwaukee, Grayson Allen (hip) is also probable.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings

MIN -4.5, total: 234.5
Pace: MIN (2nd), SAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

De’Aaron Fox has missed the last eight games with an ankle injury. He practiced in full Monday but will once again be a game-time decision. Marvin Bagley will also be a game-time decision.
For Minnesota, both D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverley are listed as questionable for this game.

Orlando Magic @ Portland Trail Blazers

POR -3.5, total: 225
Pace: ORL (11th), POR (14th)

Situations to monitor:

Eric Bledsoe (Achilles) will not make his Portland debut Tuesday.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 8.2 transition points per game this season

No player is averaging more points per game off the play type than Antetokounmpo, who is also sporting a top-10 frequency rate in transition at 26.4%. He is also averaging a healthy 1.16 points per possession, while shooting over 58% in transition. A matchup with a fast-paced Los Angeles team that is coughing up the third-most transition points per game (20.9) could definitely bode well for Antetokounmpo. Opposing teams are also getting out in transition 16.7% of the time against the Lakers this season, good for the third-highest rate in the NBA. This slate features multiple superstars but I truly love this spot for Giannis.

Domantas Sabonis is averaging over 90 touches per game over his last three games

That would be the fourth-highest mark over the course of the entire season, and keep in mind in his last game, Sabonis got into early foul trouble and played just 26 minutes. With Indiana missing Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon, this offense has run through Sabonis, and that will be even more evident with Caris LeVert now in Cleveland. With LeVert, Brogdon and Turner off the floor over the course of the season, Sabonis is sporting a 21.4% usage rate, 31% rebounding rate and 15% assist rate, while averaging a strong 1.23 fantasy points per minute in the split. Brogdon could return to the lineup Tuesday, but he’d surely be limited, which means Sabonis should once again carry the Indiana offense. He has legitimate triple-double upside in this role. Just make sure he isn’t traded, of course.

The Detroit Pistons are allowing a 41% field goal percentage off corner threes

That is the fourth-highest rate in all of basketball, which bodes well for Reggie Bullock, who has been fantastic for Dallas as of late. Over his last five games, Bullock is averaging 19.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.8 triples and 34 fantasy points per game. The absences of both Kristaps Porzingis and Tim Hardaway have led to Bullock not only playing huge minutes, but he’s also been the third option on this entire team behind Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson. As for the matchup, it is fantastic, as 35% of his field goal attempts this season have been corner triples, one of the highest rates in basketball. The price has come up but don’t be surprised if Bullock keeps it going Tuesday.

Jusuf Nurkic is averaging 3.3 post-up points per game this season

We have seen him post up a lot more since Damian Lillard has been sidelined, and as it stands right now, Portland truly only has three consistent players in their offense. He is sporting a 24% usage rate and is averaging 1.35 fantasy points per minute with Lillard, Norman Powell and Robert Covington off the floor this season. Nurkic’s 3.3 post-up points per game are good for the eighth-most in all of basketball and he should be able to find success against an Orlando team that is coughing up the fourth-most points per game (5.3) and third-most points per possession (1.03) to the post on the season. And as you can see from the FTN Daily advanced DVP tool, this matchup is just about as good as it gets.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

James Johnson vs. BOS — Johnson has already had to play more minutes in the absences of Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge. But with James Harden (hamstring) questionable and Kyrie Irving unavailable for home games, Johnson could have a huge workload against the Celtics Tuesday. It is very possible we see plenty of value in Brooklyn Tuesday.

Justise Winslow vs. ORL — Winslow made his Portland debut over the weekend and played 20 minutes in a blowout loss against Milwaukee. He also didn’t play the fourth quarter in the blowout, along with Portland’s starters. That tells me that in a more competitive game, Winslow could flirt with 25-27 minutes, and he is minimum salary on DraftKings ahead of a good matchup against the Magic.