Bettings
article-picture
article-picture
NFL
DVOA

How the Browns Defense is Dominating the NFL

Share

In an NFL season already jam-packed with storylines through three weeks, it can be tough to keep up on all the goings-on around the league. Lost in the Miami Dolphins’ offensive explosion, the complete collapse of the Chicago Bears, and the latest Taylor Swift-Travis Kelce updates, the Cleveland Browns defense is putting on a historic performance. Myles Garrett is producing at a Defensive Player of the Year level, new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is coming for Mike Tomlin’s crown for out-there sayings, and the Browns defense is off to the franchise’s best three-week start in at least 40 years.

As mentioned in our Week 3 DVOA article, the 2023 Browns -48.2% defensive DVOA ranks seventh in the DVOA era (since 1981) through three weeks. By all accounts, this isn’t just a flash-in-the-pan start. In fact, their DVOA could be even better. Cleveland is on this historic pace while still being down in the stats that typically cause big swings in early weeks. The Browns have just two turnovers in the last three games—both of which came from Grant Delpit—and they have only recovered one of their six forced fumbles. 

Then what’s propelling this defense to the best start in over 20 years? An absolutely suffocating defensive performance in all phases. Not to fall victim to early-season small sample size, but Jim Schwartz has led the Browns to some absolutely ludicrous numbers through three games. Here are a few favorites:

  • Cleveland has allowed 18 points all season, including just one offensive touchdown in 35 drives. That 0.51 points per drive nearly laps the entire league, with second-place Buffalo averaging 1.00 points per drive. (You can now check out our drive stats here.) Cleveland’s offense has already given up a pick six and a fumble touchdown, meaning the Browns offense has allowed more touchdowns than their defense.
  • Part of that low-scoring defensive streak comes from the Browns’ red zone success. By “success,” I mean it took until Week 3 for a team to even get past Cleveland’s 30-yard-line. Tennessee managed to run five total plays in the red zone against the Browns. The result? Two sacks, a run for -3 yards, an incomplete pass, and a 0-yard completion. Cleveland joins the 2019 Patriots as the only defenses since 2003 to not allow a red zone touchdown through three weeks, according to RBSDM
  • While the defense isn’t generating turnovers in the traditional sense, they’re doing a fine job in Schwartz’s eyes. In his September 15 press conference, Schwartz said “One of the best ways to get off with no points is to get off the field on third-down or fourth-down stops. The fourth-down stop’s a turnover.” On 44 third downs, Cleveland has allowed a league-low 19.5% conversion rate. 
  • Cleveland isn’t just stingy on late downs. They’ve barely let teams get past the chains, period. Through three weeks, the Browns defense allows an average of seven first downs per game. Buffalo’s defense, second place again, averages 13.7 first downs per game. According to Stathead, the Browns are the fifth team since the merger and the first team since 1999 to start the season allowing fewer than 10 first downs per game in three straight games. 
  • On a per-drive basis, Cleveland averages 0.69 punts per drive. No other team averages more than 0.47 per drive.

Now, Schwartz was expected to get some improvement out of this defense. The 2022 Browns were 23rd in defense DVOA with little cohesion and multiple star-player suspensions. Cleveland then spent the offseason loading up with new blood across the defense: defensive tackles Dalvin Tomlinson and Shelby Harris, edge rushers Za’Darius Smith and Ogbo Okoronkwo, and safety Juan Thornhill all joined the starting rotation. 

It just wasn’t supposed to turn around this drastically, this quickly.

Let’s take one of Cleveland’s biggest shortcomings in 2022: their run defense. The Browns ranked 26th in rushing DVOA and 28th in adjusted line yards last season. It’s completely turned around under Schwartz. Cleveland’s -50.4% defensive rushing DVOA is second behind the Philadelphia Eagles, while their 2.66 adjusted line yards lead the league. The Browns have still yet to allow a power (short-yardage) success yet. These aren’t against slouches, either. These are big-name rushing assignments in Joe Mixon, Najee Harris, and Derrick Henry. A lot of that production gets managed by the new acquisitions. Throwing 700 pounds of meat at the problem is certainly going to help matters. 

The pass defense is where things get really impressive. Schwartz has pinned back his ears in pass coverage, embracing a ton of press coverage and single-high looks throughout these first three games. It’s worked. The Browns have allowed a second-lowest 50.2 passer rating to quarterbacks while running man coverage. The two best ways to beat these looks is by either isolating outside receivers with deep balls or working to the flats. Well, Cleveland’s got both those locked down. The Browns have allowed a league-low 15.4% completion percentage on deep passes, resulting in just 54 yards on 13 pass attempts. On short passes, up to 15 air yards, Cleveland is producing a league-leading -60.4% passing DVOA. 

Cleveland’s league-leading defensive passing DVOA is fueled by some gaudy numbers in the Browns secondary. Denzel Ward has as many receptions allowed as pass-breakups (5) on 17 targets this season. Second-year cornerback Martin Emerson Jr. has parlayed his incredible athleticism into a year two breakout. He’s allowed just one completion on 12 targets so far. 

Of course, you can’t talk about this Browns defense without mentioning their pass rush. Cleveland’s 40.6% pressure rate is third-highest in the league, coming on a pedestrian 16th-ranked 26.0% blitz rate. This is where Myles Garrett has shined through three games, generating 4.5 of the team’s nine sacks and posting the second-most pressures in the league. Garrett’s currently got the title for the fastest sack in the league, according to Next Gen Stats. 

What makes this season different from Garrett’s past performances? In Schwartz’s base Wide-9 defense, Garrett splits all the way outside and takes a great angle at the left tackle’s otuside shoulder. When you consider just how quick his get-off is, it pretty much becomes an impossible blocking task. Running the hoop at this angle practically becomes a bull rush for Garrett; with his strength, he’s been throwing grown men like Orlando Brown Jr. and Andre Dillard straight into their quarterbacks.

Moreover, Schwartz emphasized positional versatility all offseason. You might remember Garrett’s pre-snap intimidation crossover from Week 1. That only happened because Schwartz ran Garrett at inside linebacker during that game. That was almost completely unheard of for Garrett prior to this season. According to PFF’s positional charting, Garrett had 21 combined snaps lined up off the defensive line between 2017 and 2021. This year, he already has eight such snaps. 

It’s not just Garrett. Alignment versatility has been the key X-factor in Schwartz’s defense through three weeks. Za’Darius Smith has taken snaps in the B gap, straight up over the tackle, and on the outside edge. Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has snaps at linebacker, on the line, and a few snaps in corner coverage. Grant Delpit is getting the same treatment. 

It’s completely opened up new opportunities for the Browns defense. A lot of defenses can show one coverage shell pre-snap, then move into another post-snap. Cleveland has been making multiple changes within the same snap. On one snap against Cincinnati, Cleveland showed a two-high look early in the play clock, then had both safeties take turns moving back and forth to tease a single-high post-snap look. At the snap, both safeties got downhill while the outside corners spilled out to replace the two-high look. That kind of confusion can wreak havoc on a quarterback’s ability to process.

It doesn’t stop there. The athletes in Cleveland’s front seven allow them to run some similar trickery with the offensive linemen. In the fourth quarter, Tennessee had the ball second-and-2 inside their own 20. Cleveland came out in a 4-4 front against 21 personnel. Just as Tannehill lifted his knee before the snap, Delpit rolled down to the line of scrimmage to make a 5-3 look. The extra man on the line screwed up the Titans’ blocking assignments on the line of scrimmage, leaving Shelby Harris one-on-one for a sack up the middle. 

That kind of chaos is what can really get into an offense’s head. It’s the kind of head games that result in a play like this: 

It’s rare, if ever, that defensive motion dictates the offensive motion. Now factor in the fact that this was a double-team for Garrett. Practically unheard of. Garrett did have a productive day—3.5 sacks, 10 pressures, a forced fumble—but the extra head games inherent in Schwartz’s new-look Browns defense is what broke the Titans’ brain.

The most exciting part about all this? Schwartz isn’t done. After Garrett’s incredible performance against Tennessee, Schwartz replied “I think there’s still meat on the bone, to tell you the truth.” 

If that’s the case, pray for quarterbacks everywhere. 

Previous History of the DVOA Bowl Next The Relationship Between DVOA and Fantasy Football Value