NFL Splits Tool: The Kyler-Less Cardinals

With most of the significant offseason movements in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look forward to the upcoming league year and start preparing for our 2023 fantasy football drafts. In this series, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams and players in the past. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with a wide variety of inputs such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and much more to help you gain a better understanding of the cause and effect of different scenarios. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription for full access to the tool, which will continue to update throughout the season.

After an abysmal 4-13 season, the Cardinals fired their four-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury despite extending him through 2027 last offseason. They replaced him with former Eagles’ defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon fresh off a Super Bowl run where he led the No. 2 overall defense in 2022. Gannon’s defense was a force to be reckoned with last season, setting a new single-season record in total sacks (70), finishing second in offensive yards allowed per game (301.5) and first in passing yards allowed per game (179.8). The Cardinals also hired former Titans director of player personnel, Monti Ossenfort, as their new general manager after Steve Kiem announced he would be stepping away from the team. The new regime has its work cut out for them in the upcoming year, likely missing their franchise quarterback, Kyler Murray, to open the season. In this article, I’m going to use the FTN Splits Tool to figure out how Murray’s absence impacted the pass catchers last season. Murray missed eight games in 2022, but he only played three snaps when he tore his ACL in Week 14. 

Marquise Brown, WR 

With DeAndre Hopkins serving a six-game suspension, Marquise Brown stepped up as the alpha, displaying immediate chemistry with his college quarterback Kyler Murray. In Weeks 1-6, Brown averaged 10.7 targets for 7.17 receptions, 80.83 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns. Although Brown’s numbers took a significant hit across the board without Murray, four of the five-game sample came with Hopkins active, and he is no longer with the team in 2023. 

Rondale Moore, WR 

The Cardinals’ 2021 second-round pick (No. 49 overall), Rondale Moore had a late start to the season but showed signs of improvement in his second season. After missing the first two games with a hamstring injury, Moore became a focal point of the offense, averaging 8 targets and 5.98 receptions in Weeks 4-10. In seven healthy games, Moore ranked top 20 in targets per game and 15th in receptions per game. Unfortunately, he only played one full game without Murray but posted a season-high in targets (13), receptions (9) and receiving yards (94) with Colt McCoy. 

Trey McBride, TE 

After trading for Zach Ertz in the middle of the 2021 season, the Cardinals added to the tight end room last offseason, selecting Trey McBride in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. McBride didn’t see the field much to open the season, playing more than half of the team’s offensive snaps just once in Weeks 1-9. He was a nonfactor on offense and didn’t see meaningful playing time until Zach Ertz was lost for the season with a torn ACL and MCL in Week 10. McBride logged over a 55% snap share in just two full games with Kyler Murray but only averaged 3 targets for 2 grabs and 12.5 receiving yards during that stretch. Although his numbers look dramatically better without Murray, a large portion of his production came in Week 17, where McBride saw a season-high 10 targets for 7 receptions and 78 receiving yards, while scoring his only touchdown of the season. With Ertz trending toward doubtful in Week 1, McBride should open 2023 as the Day 1 starter.