PrizePicks for November 2

If you’re just desperately craving some more NFC East football after the Sunday Night thriller (extreme sarcasm…) between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, you’re in luck. We get one more NFC East team to watch on Monday night, as the Giants take on the stout Tampa Bay defense in a game where they’re bigger underdogs (+12.5 per DraftKings SportsBook) than the Cowboys were on Sunday.

My focus for the Monday night game will be PrizePicks. Speaking of “PrizePicks,” it’s a creative new way to parlay picks based on expected fantasy point production.

The format is simple. You pick two, three, or four players and predict whether or not they will go over or under their projected fantasy point total.

When parlaying the players, the larger your parlay, the better the payout:

• Two-pick entry pays 2.5x (max entry: $400)
• Three-pick entry pays 5x (max entry: $200)
• Four-pick entry pays 10x (max entry: $100)

As a bonus offer, there is a “flex play” option that still rewards you for hitting some of your picks, only with a lesser payout.

Below are my top two PrizePicks for the game on Monday. Pairing these two picks together would have you more than double your entry fee (2.5x). If you want to go even bigger, you can add on additional picks from the “other options” section below to increase your payout potential.

The scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.

Daniel Jones, QB, New York Giants

Projected score: 15.5; the pick: UNDER

While it may have appeared that Daniel Jones already played last night, it was, in fact, just his NFC East counterpart Carson Wentz doing his best impression, totaling four turnovers. All jokes, aside, Jones is a walking turnover with little upside, especially in a matchup against a formidable defense. Through seven games this season, Jones has only totaled four passing touchdowns compared to seven interceptions and four fumbles. Yes, he has more than doubled his scores with turnovers. On top of that, he has failed to top 200 passing yards in four of his past five games and has only posted double-digit fantasy points in three of seven games.

Regardless of the matchup, I would have an incredibly hard time trusting Jones to accrue over 15.5 points. Insert the Bucs’ defense, and the task becomes even harder. The Tampa Bay defense should be able to wreak havoc on Jones, as they rank third in the NFL in blitz rate (42.5%) and pressures (78) while allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position (15.0). They’ve been even better over their last three games, too, allowing only 195.3 passing yards per game, compared to 225.3 per game on the season. While Jones will likely be playing catch-up most of the game with garbage-time production up for grabs, it’s hard to see him taking advantage, making this an easy play on the under.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Projected score: 10.0; the pick: OVER

While Gronkowski’s overall production this season has actually been better in games that Chris Godwin has been active, his recent play over the past three weeks have his arrow pointing directly up on Monday night, potentially for one final time before Antonio Brown shifts the target market in Tampa Bay next week.

Over the last three weeks, Gronkowski has averaged 4.3 catches and 64 yards per game with a pair of receiving touchdowns. If you take the catches and yardage alone, he’s averaging more than what his PrizePicks goal is on Monday. With Chris Godwin out, his 7+ targets per game are up for grabs. While Mike Evans may be the de-facto option to get the added work, he’s set to be shadowed by James Bradberry, who’s been one of the best cover corners this season, allowing only a 59% catch rate and holding a matchup grade of 36.0 (of out 100), per Jeff Ratcliffe’s WR/CB tool. This should open up more work for Gronkowski, who already leads the team in red-zone targets (10, 19.61% red-zone target share), making him a great bet to hit the over on Monday.

Other picks worth consideration: Evan Engram (under 9.0), Mike Evans (under 16.0), Scotty Miller (over 11.5)