Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
It’s going to be a long day of NBA action on Sunday with all 30 teams playing, creating the largest slate possible of 15 games.
We’re going to be playing a lot of players that we wouldn’t have thought of in the past few weeks because there are only a few spots left for the postseason in the Western Conference. Let’s talk about the five players who can help us climb the leaderboards for one last time during the regular season.
1. The Pistons are dead last against rebounders
That’s according to the FTN Advanced DvP Tool, and the Pistons are also 28th in points per game allowed in the paint –
It takes a leap of faith because he’s not guaranteed the minutes, but Andre Drummond looks very appealing if he gets some time. Nikola Vucevic probably starts the game for the Bulls since he’s started every other game, but I can’t believe he’s playing for long. Chicago can’t move their seeding and will need to win to get into the playoffs. Drummond has been excellent in points per minute at 1.35, so even just 16-20 minutes would be a great scenario for him.
2. Cam Thomas should be in line for 30+ minutes
The Nets and 76ers play each other in the first round, so they aren’t going to go all-out in this contest today. Mikal Bridges is going to start because he has an Ironman streak going back to high school, but he won’t play very long. When the Nets were short-handed around the trade deadline and Cam Thomas got minutes on the court, he reeled off three straight games of 44, 47 and 43 real points. Granted, he shot 42-for-75 from the floor in those three games, but there should be little standing in his way to take another 20+ shots and he’s only $3,200.
3. The Pelicans are 17th against point forwards
New Orleans could have a tough time matching up with Karl-Anthony Towns in this game, and he’s scoring 1.30 points per minute in the scenario the Wolves are in. This is one of the biggest games of the day, and Towns only played 28 minutes on Saturday, although he racked up 48 DK points against the Spurs. Both of these teams have made the playoffs, but the Pelicans can still land anywhere from fifth to ninth, while the Wolves want to get out of the ninth seed if they can. Towns looks like he might be finding his rhythm with two consecutive games of 48 DK points or more, and the Wolves need that in the worst way.
4. The Lakers can get to the sixth seed on Sunday
The possibility of getting out of the play-in tournament holds massive appeal to any team, especially the Lakers. They have been far more dangerous after the trade deadline and could pull an upset over the course of a seven-game series, but one game can go to anyone. I’m not in the habit of betting against LeBron James in a must-win game, and he’s scoring right about 1.50 points per minute while the matchup is prime –
James is coming off a pedestrian game that Los Angeles won, but I don’t expect a repeat of that on Sunday.
5. Shaedon Sharpe has a usage rate of over 31.5% for the Blazers
They finish off their miserable regular season by hosting the Golden State Warriors, who are looking to improve their seeding. The Blazers have taken any type of restriction away from Shaedon Sharpe, letting him push to nearly 40 minutes of playing time on some nights, and the Warriors have played at the fastest pace in the league. Sharpe has turned that usage into almost 1.20 points per minute over the past couple of weeks while scoring an average of 26 real points per game across the last five contests. He’ll be looking to put an exclamation point on this season against Curry and the Warriors in this game.
